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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国企业现金过剩问题研究研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：184
【目录或简介】：
Cash in a difficult time is like blubber on a seal: protecting the animal during the
harshness of winter, but turning bothersome in spring and summer. We believe that
US companies are now ending their recent enforced hibernation. Survival mode is
over and corporate America is breathing easier with cash as a percentage of market
cap and aggregate FCF yield now at all-time highs. Now it’s time to Cash Out.
We asked our research analysts for a bottom-up assessment of likely capital
deployment trends over the next two years. Among our key conclusions:
■ We think share buybacks are the most likely vehicle for capital return across all
sectors and we think they are the best use of corporate cash to boot. We expect
high repurchase activity in Industrials, Materials, Consumer, Media, and
Financials.
■ Dividend increases are a close second. Many firms forced to cut their dividend
last year are now looking to increase payouts. Over the next two years we think
dividend raises will be a priority in Utilities, Staples, and Financials.
■ Capex should ramp solidly, but cautiously in 2010-2011. After the most severe
corporate retrenchment relative to GDP in the last 50 years, many companies
will soon start to spend more, with an emphasis on international and emerging
markets expansion. Spending increases will be cautious, however, and capex
should remain below trend in most areas.
■ Select sectors are poised for a substantial increase in M&A, particularly
Technology, Healthcare, and Materials. In Tech, we see both transformational
and smaller “tuck-in” acquisitions. In Healthcare, we think deals will be focused
in BioPharma, Hospitals, Home Health, and small/mid cap Medical Technology.
In this report we outline specific candidates for M&A, dividend increases, and share
buybacks, as well as potential timing and size. See our unique summary charts on
pages 2-5 and at the beginning of each sector.
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