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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国房屋建筑行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：59
【目录或简介】：
Boost from Tax Credit in April; What Happens
in May?
■
Homebuyer tax credit drives improved traffic, especially as April
ended. Our Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents indicated modest
improvement in traffic in April, with traffic increasing as the month
progressed (and the tax credit came to an end). Agents indicated that the tax
credit led to the majority of traffic and created a sense of urgency at the end
of the month. Traffic was somewhat skewed to the lower end of the market,
as the $8,000 credit for first time buyers has more impact than the $6,500
credit for existing homeowners.
■
Traffic improved in April, as demand was pulled forward. Our traffic
index increased to 48.7 in April, up from 43.1 in March. The April level is the
highest we have seen in several years, based on the pull forward of
demand. The additional traffic is a positive, although we fear – and expect –
that traffic in May will drop down to the level of March (43.1), or modestly
below that level. The magnitude of the increase in April appears reasonable,
as much of the tax credit impact was concentrated in April, with only modest
impact in March. Not surprisingly, buyers were less price-sensitive in April,
as the main focus was finding a home before the end of the tax credit. Our
price index reached 43.4 in April – up from 39.9 in March. The April price
index is the highest since early 2006. However, we would not be surprised to
see prices slip a bit (or rising incentives) during late Spring and Summer.
■
Time to sell index in good shape, but rising inventory may be a
challenge. Our time to sell index, which takes into account changes in both
traffic and inventory, reached 49.1 in April, up from 45.8 in March. This is a
positive as it is often a good forward indicator of home prices, but the rising
inventory levels may put some pressure on prices.
■
Strength seen at low end of the market, but likely now reversing.
First time buyers represented the majority of demand, which likely
helped buyers with a focus on the entry-level such as D.R. Horton, KB
Home, Meritage, and Ryland. However, we expect to see slower
demand trends now that the tax credit has ended.
Table of Contents
Overview of Results………………………………..…..3
Survey Methodology…………………………………...5
Top 20 Housing Markets
Atlanta, Georgia 7
Austin, Texas 8
Charlotte, North Carolina 9
Chicago, Illinois 10
Dallas, Texas 11
Denver, Colorado 12
Fort Myers, Florida 13
Houston, Texas 14
Jacksonville, Florida 15
Las Vegas, Nevada 16
Los Angeles, California 17
Miami, Florida 18
Minneapolis, Minnesota 19
New York-Northern New Jersey 20
Orlando, Florida 21
Phoenix, Arizona 22
Riverside-San Bernardino [Inland Empire], California 23
Seattle, Washington 24
Tampa, Florida 25
Washington, D.C. 26
Additional Key Housing Markets…………………… 27
Baltimore, Maryland 28
Boston, Massachusetts 29
Charleston, South Carolina 30
Cincinnati, Ohio 31
Columbus, Ohio 32
Detroit, Michigan 33
Nashville, Tennessee 34
Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey 35
Port St. Lucie, Florida 36
Portland, Oregon 37
Raleigh, North Carolina 38
Richmond, Virginia 39
Sacramento, California 40
San Antonio, Texas 41
San Diego, California 42
San Francisco, California 43
Sarasota, Florida 44
Tucson, Arizona 45
Virginia Beach, Virginia 46
Wilmington, North Carolina 47
Historical Survey Trends by Market……………… 48
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