转一篇美国职业高手做的SP500技术分析

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Nonetheless, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow industrials have both hesitated just under their respective 50-day moving averages, keeping the U.S. markets' near-term backdrop on shaky footing.

The S&P 500's hourly chart details the past three weeks.
With Monday's sharp reversal, the S&P knifed back atop the January peak - the 1,150 mark - before establishing support in this area.
From current levels, initial overhead holds at its 50-day moving average, currently 1,171, and is followed by significant resistance at the March peak of 1,180.
Conversely, initial support holds at 1,150, while the next notable floor spans from 1,122 to 1,130, matching Monday's open.

Meanwhile, the Dow's near-term view is similar.

And the S&P 500's wider view roughly matches that of the Dow industrials.
On the constructive side, consider that Friday's low - unaffected by Thursday's technical glitch - held within a point of its 200-day moving average, preserving the S&P's primary uptrend.
Nonetheless, the index stalled just under its 50-day moving average on Monday, and a break atop this area is needed as a first step toward repairing last week's technical damage.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-sp-500s-new-trading-range-2010-05-11

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关键词：技术分析 美国职业 establishing Constructive Industrials 美国 技术 职业 高手

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看了整篇原文，确实不错。人人看的图都一样，高手确可以从准确的中读出市场的动向。

职业的技术报告其实也没有太多花哨的技术指标，就是简简单单几个支撑阻力位，两三条移动均线，但别人“看图说话”的功夫却不是一日而就的。

今天果然标普就是在1150-1171之间波动，丝毫不差！

还看到另一篇分析说只要标普不向上突破50均线，那么买入的风险都远远大于收益。

确实是这样，当中线处在下跌趋势的时候，突破主要短期均线的束缚是中线进场做多的必要非充分条件。

所有的职业高手，都是杰西利物莫尔的学生。（这里说的是traders，而不是投资者）

杰西利物莫尔说：“投机者不是投资者，他的目的并非追求稳定的回报，而是从价格的起落中获利。因而需要决定的是在交易时最小阻力的位置，他需要等待市场自己确定自身的支撑和阻力位。”

这位职业高手在以上分析中，第一确定要找出的便是“市场的支撑和阻力位”，也就是获得他们所说的 trading range，我们常说的价格的起落的大体波动幅度。

市场的支撑位和阻力位，价格波动幅度一旦被确定，交易计划也就确定了。支撑位附近做多，阻力位附近做空。

我今天看盘一整天，发现SP500就在支撑位附近改变趋势上行，阻力位附近改变趋势下行。我怀疑他们的计算机交易程序也是这样设定的。

以下是SP500 当日 K线 图

昨天要是也好好做功课的话今天自己应该会在1171的位置做空的，符合自己的交易策略，可惜有点懒下午没有看盘。

明天看看还能否有机会用上方阻力来做空。

最希望看到的是指数随20均线的阻力下跌，这种明显的趋势最好操作。

WHY NOT TRADING IN CURRENCY

hnloop 发表于 2010-5-12 08:04
WHY NOT TRADING IN CURRENCY

CURRENCY TRADING 都是 Margin Trading (leverage)，杀红眼了一不小心就血本无归。

美国散户大都trade currency ETFs。主要的currency 都有ETFs，跟买卖股票一样。如你对欧元有兴趣，你可做多or 做空 FXE, 如果你觉的 1：1 玩不够刺激，你可玩 Double 输赢 的 ERO。

Margin Trading (leverage)
In contrast with other financial markets where you require the full deposit of the amount traded, in the Forex market you require only a margin deposit. The rest will be granted by your broker.
The leverage provided by some brokers goes up to 400:1. This means that you require only 1/400 or .25% in balance to open a position (plus the floating gains/losses.) Most brokers offer 100:1, where every trader requires 1% in balance to open a position.
The standard lot size in the Forex market is $100,000 USD.
For instance, a trader wants to get long one lot in EUR/USD and he or she is using 100:1 leverage.
To open such position, he or she requires 1% in balance or $1,000 USD.
Of course it is not advisable to open a position with such limited funds in our trading balance. If the trade goes against our trader, the position is to be closed by the broker. This takes us to our next important term.
Margin Call
A margin call occurs when the balance of the trading account falls below the maintenance margin (capital required to open one position, 1% when the leverage used is 100:1, 2% when leverage used is 50:1, and so on.) At this moment, the broker sells off (or buys back in the case of short positions) all your trades, leaving the trader "theoretically" with the maintenance margin.
Most of the time margin calls occur when money management is not properly applied.

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牛呀，哎，功夫好难造呀