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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国光伏行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Demand likely to remain strong in 2H10
We remain positive on the China solar energy sector and expect stronger-thanexpected
demand growth for solar PV modules in 2010 (most of the Chinese solar
PV manufacturers indicate that their capacity has been fully booked until 3Q10 or
end-2010). Wafer supply seems to be the near-term bottleneck with ASP trending
up recently. We believe this is likely to benefit wafer suppliers such as ReneSola
(Buy) in the near term, and we continue to prefer integrated players such as Yingli
(Buy) and Trina (Buy).
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Trina Solar (TSL.N),USD24.95 Buy
Renesola (SOL.N),USD6.75 Buy
Yingli Green Energy (YGE.N),USD12.27 Buy
Companies featured
Trina Solar (TSL.N),USD24.95 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 6.9 11.2 11.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 5.7 5.1
Price/book (x) 2.4 1.7 1.5
Renesola (SOL.N),USD6.75 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 8.5 8.0
EV/EBITDA (x) – 6.8 6.4
Price/book (x) 1.0 1.2 1.1
Suntech Power Holdings (STP.N),USD13.03 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 31.9 17.4 12.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 8.8 7.5
Price/book (x) 1.9 1.3 1.2
Yingli Green Energy (YGE.N),USD12.27 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 27.1 10.8 12.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 6.3 6.2
Price/book (x) 2.2 1.6 1.4
Related recent research Date
China Solar Energy Sector - China players to withstand
global headwinds
Eric Cheng 25 Feb 2010
Upcoming events Date
ReneSola 1Q10 results
10 May 2010
Global Markets Research Company
Raising 2010E earnings by 24-62% but less so for 2011E
We expect the Chinese solar PV manufacturers to post strong qoq shipment
growth in 1Q10 and believe such a trend will continue in 2Q10 and 3Q10. We
raise our 2010E earnings on better-than-expected ASPs but less so for 2011E
earnings until we see greater visibility after the German feed-in-tariff (FIT) cut. We
expect the final outcome of the German FIT cut to be within market expectations
(i.e., a 16% cut for roof-top and a 15% cut for greenfield starting July 2010).
Competitiveness would strengthen on likely credit extension
We maintain our view, as stated in our February report “China players to
withstand global headwinds”, that the low-cost Chinese solar PV manufacturers
with strong brand equity are better positioned than global peers. The recent
newsflow that China Development Bank may extend credit facilities of Rmb50bn
and Rmb30bn to Suntech and Trina, respectively, is positive to these two leading
Chinese players, in our view, though we note that these amounts are just under
MOU and no definite agreements have been signed yet.
Sector view: Buy ReneSola, Trina and Yingli
We expect a likely turnaround in 1Q10 and qoq earnings improvement in 2Q10
and 3Q10 to drive share outperformance for ReneSola (our 2010E earnings are
above consensus and among the highest in the street). We believe integrated
players such as Yingli and Trina will continue to drive cost leadership and be better
protected from the near-term wafer shortage. We like Suntech’s strong brand, but
maintain Hold on valuation grounds.
Target price is based on 2010E P/E multiples ranging from 12x-19x
We use a P/E multiple as our primary valuation method and set our target prices
based on our 2010E earnings. Our target 2010E P/E multiples range from 12x-19x
and imply 1.3x-2.1x 2010E P/BV. Key upside/(downside) risks: currency
fluctuations, change in the government’s solar subsidy policies, lower/(higher)-
than-expected decline in module ASP and demand fluctuations driven by credit
market volatility.
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