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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国飞机租赁行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：35
【目录或简介】：
The combination of improving global airline fundamentals, potential firming of
aircraft values and continued firming of lease rates, and the gradual return of the
securitization market (and even more flexible funding options such as unsecured
debt) are already driving renewed interest in aircraft leasing stocks. Furthermore,
with the domestic airline consolidation shoe having fallen, investor interest may
shift even further in lessors’ favor. While price targets for all 3 are strengthened,
AYR emerges as our top pick, necessitating an upgrade to Overweight.
• Market values may be close to bottoming. Sure, appraisers may take another
whack, but the market is likely looking through this phenomenon and towards a
gradual firming in values. More importantly, values don’t dictate cash flow,
lease rates do. And lease rates have already bottomed and should drive
improvements in cash flow from here, in our view.
• There’s leverage in these models. AYR & FLY are both trading below the
recently appraised value of their fleets (with said values down over 30% from
the market peak). Based on our analysis, a mere 7-8% bump in appraised values
from here translates into >50% equity upside potential.
• ILFC/CIT/RBS no longer appear the overhangs they once were. Last year,
we were concerned that a break-up or fire sale of the ILFC portfolio could
further depress used aircraft values. CIT and RBS portfolios, while much
smaller, nonetheless posed a similar threat. We’re no longer concerned, with
ILFC now stabilized, CIT having emerged successfully from Chapter 11 with no
near-term plans to de-emphasize aircraft leasing, and the RBS portfolio off the
market (for now, but even a renewed attempt to sell likely would not scare us).
• We remain bullish on global airline recovery. Outlook in the US remains
bright, and ash-related EU compensation suggests no incremental shutdowns, in
our view. And the manufacturers share our view, with Airbus planning to
increase A320 rates, and Boeing having pulled forward 777 and 747-8 rate
increases, while hinting at potential 737 increases.
• We remain bullish on the high-yield outlook. Leasing equities are highly
correlated to the J.P. Morgan JULI High Yield Index. Our HY Credit Strategist,
Peter Acciavatti, continues to Overweight HY credit. For those that agree,
leasing equities may prove attractive. The recent market pullback, driven by EU
and Greece concerns, could provide a nice entry point for those that have missed
the rally in the leasing stocks off the February 2009 lows
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