如果英国央行加息，英镑分别在短期和长期是会贬值还生值啊

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因为interest parity theory里的货币关系是F/S=1+if/1+id where F= forward rate, S=spot rate, f=foreign interest, d=domestic interest rate,也就是说如果外国的利率高于本国利率的话，外币就会由预期的贬值。但是短期内，我们可以看见比如美国央行加息的话，美元就会在短时间内出现升值，这个是什么道理啊？

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关键词：央行加息 interest Domestic forward Foreign 英国 央行加息 英镑

first I think your equation is wrong

f(t) = s(t) + i(d) -i(foreign)

second, what is the domestic currency, obviously US dollar is assumed to be foreign currency

As we can see, if domestic currency is RMB, US dollar is depreciate

forget to say the above equation is under CIP

Under UIP

YOU WILL HAVE Et(S(t+1)) = s(t) + i(d) -i(foreign)

哦，对不起我忘记说了我这个用的是indirect exchange rate，1RMB=？USD公式没问题的，只是我的模型做出来和theory不一样

so if your equation is correct

then your conclusion is wrong

as you can see, forwrd rate is positively correlated with i(foreign)

is i(foreign) increase, that means your forward rate will increase

that means the domestic currency will depreciate

foreign currency will appreciate, which is contradictory with your conclusion foreign currency will depreciate

you need to check it.

By the way, the formula above I give is from mathematic finance, if you are doubted about it, you can check this book.

我用的是ARIMAX 对random walk process做经验学习，我觉得parity theory是neo-classical theory,所以我没有加varibles什么都没有动，就加了几个lag,对可能的multicolinerity进行了一下处理，结果与theory相反的，所以我想exchange rate的调整很可能是凯恩斯式的，所以可能达到一个partial equilibrium，而不是GE，所以我觉得这个适用于长期而不是短期。

forwrd rate is positively correlated with i(foreign)

are u sure?

forwrd rate is positively correlated with i(foreign)

are u sure?

F/S=1+if/1+id

F=1+if/1+id *S

if增高，F也增高

F是1RMB=？USD

F增高就是人民币增值，USD贬值，两个公式是一样的，只是一个用direct一个用indirect,汗~~

you need to be careful about your definition with exchange rate

usually exchange rate is defined as domestic currency against foreign currency

that is how much domestic currency can be measured as one unit US dollar