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Against the backdrop of economic turmoil, Chinese assets with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations remain attractive.Investors are advised to guard against risk transmission across assets, markets and industries.
"The stream cloud rises at the beginning of the sun sinks the pavilion, the mountain storm is about to come."In 2008, liquidity dried up in the wake of the lehman bankruptcy, triggering a once-in-a-century global financial crisis.Twelve years later, the cycle of crisis returns in 2020. The black hole of dollar liquidity siphons everything. The gap between traditional risk and safe haven assets has been broken.Before march, the spread of covid-19 and the turmoil in the oil market caused more panic than liquidity risk. However, since march, the panic of dollar liquidity gradually trumped other shocks, and was amplified and rapidly worsened by non-financial risks, becoming the core driver of global market volatility.
In the short term, the choice of "sell more" and "sell all" is replacing the controversy of "risk on" or "risk off" at the moment when the dollar liquidity crisis triggered a huge shock in the global financial market.In the long run, Chinese assets with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations remain relatively attractive against the backdrop of major turmoil.Investors are advised to tread carefully, be alert to the risk transmission across assets, markets and industries, and pay attention to the relatively strong long-term allocation options.
The dollar black hole is siphoning markets around the world, with both risky and safe assets selling off.
In 2019, the federal reserve led the global monetary policy to make a sharp turn. However, the endogenous conflicts between the supply and demand imbalance in monetary policy, fiscal policy and capital market are increasingly intensified. In addition, the trump administration frequently puts pressure on the federal reserve, which greatly reduces the direction and effect of its policies.From September 2019, the us Repo market began to experience a persistent liquidity shortage, leading to intermittent sharp increases in the federal funds rate (FF), Overnight general mortgage Repo rate (Overnight GC Repo) and guaranteed Overnight funding rate (SOFR). This crisis also forced the federal reserve to announce the resumption of expansion in October of that year.
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