发帖
巴克莱资本6月底发布的《Global Outlook》，主要内容是2010年下半年全球资产配置策略、经济前景，以及外汇、股票、商品、债券市场投资策略。全文共94页。售论坛币4个。
OVERVIEW..........................................................................................................................................4
Rebound, but no raging bull market
Recent market moves do not pose a serious threat to the economic recovery. However, they
highlight roadblocks to a sustained bull market given the headwinds of monetary tightening
in EM countries and fiscal issues in developed countries.
ASSET ALLOCATION.........................................................................................................................9
The arduous path to global policy normalization
The potential for equity-like returns has re-emerged in several higher-risk fixed-income
categories (including US high yield, leveraged loans, CMBS and non-agency mortgages) and
relative equity valuations have cheapened to their most attractive levels in decades.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.....................................................................................................................19
Slouching towards the new normal
Markets may be overly pessimistic about the possibility of a near-term debt incident in
peripheral Europe. The longer-term implication of the European crisis is likely not to be default,
but rather fiscal consolidation among advanced economies too early in the cycle.
COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK..............................................................................................32
Resetting the compass
With the recovery in commodity demand looking sustainable and supply constraints reemerging
in several sectors, we expect fundamental dynamics within individual commodity
markets to re-establish themselves as the main price drivers.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE OUTLOOK ...................................................................................................40
Smaller currencies gleam more brightly
We expect the G4 currencies to underperform the rest of the FX world, as their economies
face much more significant fiscal pressures and are likely to keep real interest rates lower
while risk appetite and liquidity recover.
INTEREST RATES OUTLOOK...........................................................................................................45
Recovering from Q2
After the flight to quality in Q2 10, global bond markets should take the first steps towards
normalization in Q3. We expect US rates to rise slowly across the curve, driven by
improvements in labor markets and inflation readings, as well as a rising term premium.
CREDIT MARKET OUTLOOK...........................................................................................................58
Sovereign risk takes centre stage
Sovereign risk has clearly been a key driver of volatility this quarter, along with concerns
about financial reform in the US. We expect moderate spread tightening over the rest of the
year, with the US markets outperforming Europe.
EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK...........................................................................................................68
Low valuations drive positive stance
Our positive stance on European equities into year-end is driven by historically low relative
and absolute valuations, the risk of higher longer-term inflation volatility and improving
sentiment in peripheral European bond markets.
EMERGING MARKETS OUTLOOK...................................................................................................80
In the shadow of fear
Tactically, we remain bullish on emerging asset markets. But if the rally materializes as we
expect, we would be inclined to pare back risk on the view that longer-term challenges will
continue to justify caution in risk asset markets.
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