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【出版时间及名称】：Standard & Poor june 2010
【作者】：Efraim Levy, CFA, Auto Manufacturers & Auto Parts Analyst
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Current Environment ............................................................................................ 1
Industry Profile ...................................................................................................... 9
Industry Trends ................................................................................................... 11
How the Industry Operates ............................................................................... 19
Key Industry Ratios and Statistics................................................................... 25
How to Analyze an Automobile Manufacturing Company .......................... 27
Industry References........................................................................................... 30
Comparative Company Analysis ......................................................... Appendix
Toyota stumbles
A series of recalls that began in late 2009 have tarnished Toyota Motor Corp.’s reputation for quality
vehicles. In late 2009, Toyota announced a recall to fix floor mats that could trap the driver’s pedal and, in
early 2010, the company attributed some crashes to a possible mechanical sticking of the accelerator pedal
leading to unintended acceleration. Choosing to err on the side of caution, Toyota shut down some
production lines. Paradoxically, this action compounded consumers’ concerns and ultimately led to a US
Congressional inquiry.
We think that Toyota will largely recover from its current quality and public relations problems, which we
feel are more of a media/image challenge that Toyota has never really had to deal with in the past. Despite
the bad press, Toyota still has a reputation for quality workmanship, built up over the decades. It also has a
strong balance sheet and plenty of cash to mount an offensive to win back consumers with improved
warranty guarantees and cash incentives.
We expect Toyota to continue to grow over the long term, both in the US and abroad. We see volume
beginning to rise in the US in 2010 on a rebound in industry demand that should outweigh any market
share losses. In addition, we expect rapid growth by Toyota abroad as more motor vehicles are purchased in
emerging markets, led by China. Therefore, despite near-term costs, we expect overall sales and profits for
Toyota to grow during the next few years.
The key for Toyota, in our view, is to get past the current negative news flow. It must once again deliver on
its promises. Supported by its brand reputation, we think that Toyota will win back current customers once
it says that it has fixed the problems. Winning over new customers, however, will be more difficult.
We feel that Toyota would suffer a serious blow to its reputation if a new problem crops up after it has
assured everyone that the current problems have been fixed. Barring this possibility, we expect a humbled
Toyota will move beyond the current mess and resume its growth. The lesson to be learned here—for both
Toyota and other carmakers—is to focus on quality because recalls hurt reputations.
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