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【出版时间及名称】：FX & Fixed Income:Double‐dip for Europe
【作者】：
Standard Bank【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：17
【目录或简介】：We still fear that the Eurozone debt crisis will end in tears and the euro will end up
at parity against the dollar as a result. Even if the crisis does not end in debt restructuring
and possible EMU withdrawal, there’s still a severe economic consequence from the
tough fiscal action that countries have taken.
• We maintain that the economic damage done by this crisis will provoke a monetary
response from the ECB. We have argued this all year and, while the Bank might
not have cut rates yet, it has clearly taken other measures to ease the pain, like buying
government bonds.
• We believe that the Fed will drop its commitment to an “extended period” of low
rates in the autumn and will start to lift rates next spring. But there’s no doubt that
the risks here are skewed towards a longer period of near-zero rates.
• This raises the possibility that treasury yields could fall even further. Ten-year yields are
already around 14-month lows right now, having broken back below 3%. We have
pretty much pencilled in 10-year yields to be around the 3% mark for the rest of
2010 and we see little reason to change this view right now.
• The UK government’s tough fiscal line and the talk of higher rates has allowed
sterling to continue its post-election rally. We are not surprised. The pound always
looked set for a rise, provided the election outcome was not too messy. From here we
believe that sterling can make up all the ground that it had lost to the euro in the credit
crunch. This means a return to 70 pence, at least, over the next few years.
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