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ectopic 发表于 2010-10-19 20:32

非主流書生 發表於 2010-10-19 19:12
When IT technology increased productivity significantly, there are more goods and services needed to be consume for the economy not slipping into recession.

Are you serious? You think productivity gain leads to recession?

Greenspan gave his famous speech of "irrational exuberance" in 1997. But some people argued that it was not bubble but properly reflected the fundamental increases in assets' potential future incomes. What should Greenspan have done at that time? Increasing the interest rate preemptively enough without clear signs of inflation?

I think Greenspan should have done nothing, at that time, before that time, and after that time. Just let the market determine price of money (interest rate).

Right. Let's stop open market operations, close the discount window, or just shut down the entire Fed Reserve. Go back to the Gold Standard, or allow private banks issue their own monies, like what happened during the civil war. Perhaps even Milton Friedman would turn in his grave...

As the ultimate supplier of money, central bank doing nothing is doing something.

记得三天前, 我说过, PARTY IS OVER,

641# 非主流書生
As I clearly expressed, by nothing I meant price intervention. I did not talk about any of the garbage that you tried to put in my mouth. Why are you wasting time on silly word games?

另一篇关于量化宽松的文章, 和我自己的观点是一样的:
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20101019/rec091708.asp?source=UpFeature

还有这篇的观点我也是赞同的(尤其是里面提到的资金很难流入劳动密集型行业, 我觉得是量化宽松无法改变就业的重要原因. 而这次衰退的最重要的问题就是就业, 量化宽松本身很难去提升多少就业率.):
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20101018/hrd172803.asp?source=article

汇率的问题，货币政策的问题，大家不要讨论得太过认真．这本身就是各个国家职能的延伸，每个人基于的立场不同，看法和观点自然相反．　　这就跟讨论政　治本身一样，关心市场的人研究政　治应该怎样是毫无意义的；我们应该把更多的时间和精力用来研究市场对政　策的如何反应．

644# feng-pan 昨晚我明显看到了，中国加息对美元指数、国际金价以及国际大宗商品的影响，虽然美元指数不改长期走弱趋势，但是我认为中国加息可能会对QE2造成不确定性~进而影响世界金融市场。

645# lanseyiran

是的, 公司有个导师也是这个观点.  我自己倒是还不太确定,感觉QE2都板上钉钉了. 不过如果真的QE2受到影响, 市场可就真有一顿跌了.

ectopic 发表于 2010-10-20 07:12
641# 非主流書生  
As I clearly expressed, by nothing I meant price intervention. I did not talk about any of the garbage that you tried to put in my mouth. Why are you wasting time on silly word games?

I didn't mean to offend you. Those words were not directed to you but express my feeling towards the group of people (followers of Mises perhaps) who are so against the Federal Reserve. I am sorry if they hurt your feeling. Let's end the discussion then. By the way, inflation targeting and Taylor's rule are both instruments for affecting the interest rate, some kind of price interventions.

楼主只给了11条“军规”，应加一天凑够一打。How about the following:

Rule #12: The rules above are all subject to change without notice.

总算是看到非美货币掉头了   







个人觉得今天非美货币得先上行，然后继续下跌。

647# 非主流書生
I agree.