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高手啊，频繁的交易需要超级大脑

feng-pan 發表於 2010-10-17 09:38
But i don't think QE will do as much as it was supposed to do.

Time will tell, but if it doesn't work you can bet Fed will do something else to prop up prices. Bernanke is very, very phobic of deflation. So if S&P500 ever approaches 800 again, I'll be going 100% long without waiting for double bottom confirmation.

In terms of real economic fundamentals, I think 99.9% of all government inteventions don't do as they are supposed to. It's sad that we learn and talk about the efficiency of free markets in economics 101, but in practice we do not allow markets to be free. We come with all sorts of excuses for governments to interfere with prices and make markets inefficient. For traders it's actually good, you just learn to play along with the government and profit from the inefficiencies. But for people who do not understand the nature of the game, they lose without even knowing.

Time will tell, but if it doesn't work you can bet Fed will do something else to prop up prices.

That I wouldn't doubt.

Yeh...  The free market against big gov. is quite interesting if you see it through history.

Prior to World War 2, the war street had always been the beliefe of free market, untill the great depretion started in 1929. Later Franklin Delano Roosevelt came into power and shifted the country into 'big gov'.

When it came into the 80s,  Reagan brought the country back to 'free market' again. And the US had a 20-years prosperity.

Now we came into 2010s, serious problem in the economy was revealed by the FC. And all the countries turned back into 'big gov' stage.

History just repeats itself. There is nothing new under the sunshine.

PARTY IS OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

看了楼主和ectopic 的见解受益匪浅。但是楼主你有个观点我觉得是值得商榷的。
第600楼里的 “With the increasing liquidity in the market, money will naturaly folw to the 'hot spots', ie devoleping markets, and create commodity bubbles.
Just see the rally of commodity stocks in chinese market, that's the direct cause of QE2, and it's a rally caused purely by liquidity, that's just pure bubble.”
我个人认为我们国内的各种物品的疯涨更多的应该归咎于我们自己的Z F，不应该归咎于热钱。因为Z F里的人就是这些物品疯涨的受益者。他们是支持泡沫的。举个例子，就拿房地产来说，在4月的时候出台了一系所谓的最严厉列打压政策，我个人认为是不可能压下来的，结果的确是这样，见下面附件传的图，更深切的是深圳的楼价也涨了。
我这样认为的原因只有一个，就是房地产绑架了银行。银行是不会让房地产公司有资金缺口的，一旦房子卖不出，房地产公司向银行贷款，银行也不得不借给他们。因为一旦有资金缺口，房子必须降价来促销还钱，如果真的降低销售价格，即使是一点点，那么他们会很麻烦的，因为房子这东西都是追涨杀跌的，销售价格会跌得更多。那么银行的贷款也跟着完蛋了，接着银行也完蛋了（房地产贷款占银行的贷款比率是不可能被真正的公开的，因为很多都是违规贷款，灰色地带）。接着我们的经济也完蛋了。
还有为什么中国不加息呢？如果真的想降低楼价，加息就好了，比干什么都有效。说到底也是为了保护房地产。因为Z F就是泡沫的受益者，所以他们是支持泡沫的支持者。
同时中国的物品疯涨也不是QE2造成的，你看看去年的绿豆和蒜头都涨疯了，最近白糖也在涨了，只能说热钱助长了泡沫，而不是泡沫的根本原因。

这几天在想楼主在想楼主在565楼那句“不应该在强阻力位的下方做多！ 所以入场点的选择上有原则性的错误。 更好的入场点应该是价格向上突破了三重顶之后进去，然后追踪止损。”
问题写在了，下面附件的图形里，希望楼主，和各位指导指导！谢谢了。

606# 江湖小虾米 如你那个图所示  ，我觉得不在重要阻力位下做多，应该是不在C做多，更多的倾向于C做空，理由两点：
1、你的那个图是一个微弱的下降通道；
2、c点做空风险报酬比很合适；

江湖小虾米 发表于 2010-10-18 13:38

看了楼主和ectopic 的见解受益匪浅。但是楼主你有个观点我觉得是值得商榷的。
第600楼里的 “With the increasing liquidity in the market, money will naturaly folw to the 'hot spots', ie devoleping markets, and create commodity bubbles.
Just see the rally of commodity stocks in chinese market, that's the direct cause of QE2, and it's a rally caused purely by liquidity, that's just pure bubble.”
我个人认为我们国内的各种物品的疯涨更多的应该归咎于我们自己的Z F，不应该归咎于热钱。因为Z F里的人就是这些物品疯涨的受益者。他们是支持泡沫的。举个例子，就拿房地产来说，在4月的时候出台了一系所谓的最严厉列打压政策，我个人认为是不可能压下来的，结果的确是这样，见下面附件传的图，更深切的是深圳的楼价也涨了。
我这样认为的原因只有一个，就是房地产绑架了银行。银行是不会让房地产公司有资金缺口的，一旦房子卖不出，房地产公司向银行贷款，银行也不得不借给他们。因为一旦有资金缺口，房子必须降价来促销还钱，如果真的降低销售价格，即使是一点点，那么他们会很麻烦的，因为房子这东西都是追涨杀跌的，销售价格会跌得更多。那么银行的贷款也跟着完蛋了，接着银行也完蛋了（房地产贷款占银行的贷款比率是不可能被真正的公开的，因为很多都是违规贷款，灰色地带）。接着我们的经济也完蛋了。
还有为什么中国不加息呢？如果真的想降低楼价，加息就好了，比干什么都有效。说到底也是为了保护房地产。因为Z F就是泡沫的受益者，所以他们是支持泡沫的支持者。
同时中国的物品疯涨也不是QE2造成的，你看看去年的绿豆和蒜头都涨疯了，最近白糖也在涨了，只能说热钱助长了泡沫，而不是泡沫的根本原因。

你只分析了国内, 没有放眼世界, 所以无法解释.

从美股看, 美国连续100多年的大牛已走到顶, 但现在方空还为时过早, 顶部需要个V为证, 从价格和时间上要对称,再连序三波的震荡, 如果走到这里,  世界末日也就不远了.

还有第二中走法.

608# yoyodave
请问一下yoyodave ，在从世界的角度如何看这个问题呢？如果从世界的角度就正如楼主所说的?