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【出版时间及名称】：GS-Slowing global momentum：“minor” risks to Asian earnings-100728
【作者】：高盛高华
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Earnings outlook and context
Our regional earnings analysis supports our view that Asian earnings
may be only modestly impacted by a slowdown in global, largely G3,
growth. The 2Q reporting season has started well and sensitivity to the
US/Europe is less than most believe. However, we are less confident
about what the market will pay for those earnings, if concerns about
G3 growth persist and global valuations remain under pressure.
Stressing regional earnings reveals moderate
downside
Looking at the relationship between our GLI and Asian earnings, as
well as the US/European exposure of Asian corporates, we feel a
modest revision on the order of -2% might be necessary. Areas where
we have concerns vs consensus include metals/mining, bulk shipping,
India IT and Korea autos.
Separating “minor” setbacks from “major”
pullbacks
We look at major and minor index setbacks in the last 15 years and
ensuing EPS change. We believe this episode will be ‘minor’ in terms
of index risk and profit revisions, largely because starting valuations
and EPS growth expectations were not elevated. That said, the ytd
valuation decline may not be discounting specific Asian earnings risks,
but concerns about medium term global growth, implying less room
for valuations to rebound.
2Q has started on track; we look for potential
surprises
10% of index cap has reported so far, and numbers are tracking 52% of
full year estimates. We highlight potential upside and downside
surprises based on margin
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