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Original Z-Scoreformula for public manufacturing companies:
Original Z-Score =1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 0.999X5
X1= working capital/total Assets. It measures the net liquid asset of a companyrelative to the total assets.
X2= retained earnings/total Assets. It measures the financial leverage level of acompany.
X3= earnings before interests and taxes/total Assets. It measures productivity ofa company’s total assets.
X4= market value of equity/book value of total liabilities. It measures whatportion of a company’s assets can decline in value before the liabilitiesexceed the assets.
- Original Z-SCORE[For Public Manufacturer]
If the score is 3.0or above - bankruptcy is not likely.
If the Score is 1.8or less - bankruptcy is likely.
A score between 1.8and 3.0 is the gray area.
Probabilities ofbankruptcy within the above ranges are 95% for one year and 70% within twoyears. Obviously, a higher score is desirable.
参考文献：
Altman, Edward I. (September, 1968). ""Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy"". Journal of Finance: 189–209.
附件中Zscore即为计算结果，原数据包含计算时用到的各项指标及计算结果，变量说明及计算过程在txt文件中。
03-19 Altman Zscore.xlsx
(1.7 MB, 需要: RMB 10 元)
03-19 Altman Z score原数据.xlsx
(8.03 MB, 需要: RMB 10 元)
Altman Zscore 计算.txt
(4.05 KB, 需要: RMB 1 元)
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