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Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making
Edited by Derek J. Koehler and
Nigel Harvey
Contents
List of Contributors viii
List of Figures and Tables xi
Preface xiv
Part I: Approaches 1
1 Rationality and the Normative/Descriptive Distinction 3
David Over
2 Normative Models of Judgment and Decision Making 19
Jonathan Baron
3 Social Judgment Theory: Applying and Extending Brunswik’s
Probabilistic Functionalism 37
William M. Goldstein
4 Fast and Frugal Heuristics: The Tools of Bounded Rationality 62
Gerd Gigerenzer
5 Yet Another Look at the Heuristics and Biases Approach 89
Gideon Keren and Karl H. Teigen
6 Walking with the Scarecrow: The Information-processing Approach
to Decision Research 110
John W. Payne and James R. Bettman
7 Computational Models of Decision Making 133
Jerome R. Busemeyer and Joseph G. Johnson
Part II: Judgments 155
8 Inside and Outside Probability Judgment 157
David A. Lagnado and Steven A. Sloman
9 Perspectives on Probability Judgment Calibration 177
Dale Griffin and Lyle Brenner
10 Hypothesis Testing and Evaluation 200
Craig R. M. McKenzie
11 Judging Covariation and Causation 220
David R. Shanks
12 A Tale of Tuned Decks? Anchoring as Accessibility and Anchoring
as Adjustment 240
Nicholas Epley
13 Twisted Pair: Counterfactual Thinking and the Hindsight Bias 258
Neal J. Roese
14 Forecasting and Scenario Planning: The Challenges of Uncertainty
and Complexity 274
Paul J. H. Schoemaker
15 Expertise in Judgment and Decision Making: A Case for Training
Intuitive Decision Skills 297
Jennifer K. Phillips, Gary Klein, and Winston R. Sieck
16 Debiasing 316
Richard P. Larrick
Part III: Decisions 339
17 Context and Conflict in Multiattribute Choice 341
Eldar Shafir and Robyn A. LeBoeuf
18 Internal and Substantive Inconsistencies in Decision Making 360
Christopher K. Hsee, Jiao Zhang, and Junsong Chen
19 Framing, Loss Aversion, and Mental Accounting 379
Dilip Soman
20 Decision Under Risk 399
George Wu, Jiao Zhang, and Richard Gonzalez
21 Intertemporal Choice 424
Daniel Read
22 The Connections between Affect and Decision Making: Nine
Resulting Phenomena 444
Yuval Rottenstreich and Suzanne Shu
23 Group Decision and Deliberation: A Distributed Detection Process 464
Robert D. Sorkin, Shenghua Luan, and Jesse Itzkowitz
24 Behavioral Game Theory 485
Simon Gachter
25 Culture and Decisions 504
Incheol Choi, Jong An Choi, and Ara Norenzayan
Part IV: Applications 525
26 Behavioral Finance 527
Markus Glaser, Markus Noth, and Martin Weber
27 Judgment and Decision-making Accounting Research: A Quest
to Improve the Production, Certification, and Use of Accounting
Information 547
Natalia Kotchetova and Steven Salterio
28 Heuristics, Biases, and Governance 567
Jeffrey J. Rachlinski
29 The Psychology of Medical Decision Making 585
Gretchen B. Chapman
30 Judgment, Decision Making, and Public Policy 604
Nick Pidgeon and Robin Gregory
Index 624
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