转自http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/thread-39866-1-1.html
Crate expectations
板条箱的期望值
FORGET civil rights, sexual liberation and pop music. The swinging sixties also saw the advent of containerisation in shipping.
Some 140m containers
now carry around half of the world’s exports by value (see chart). And according to the brokers that are starting to offer container-freight derivatives, contracts based on the future price of renting containers, the way these boxes are financed is about to undergo another revolution.
忘掉公民权、性解放和流行乐吧。摇摆的六十年代也看到了集装箱航运的到来。大约1.4亿集装箱(已修改)如今所承运货物的价值占世界总出口值的一半(见图)。而根据正在开始提供集装箱货运衍生品的货运经纪人的说法,合同中集装箱的租金都是基于未来的价格,这些集装箱的融资方法将要经历另一次革命。
Clarksons, the world’s biggest shipbroker, which pioneered derivatives for dry-bulk cargoes like iron ore and coal in the early 1990s, made its first container-derivative trade in January this year. Since then two other London-based brokers, ICAP and Freight Investor Services, have also started to offer derivatives settled against the Shanghai Containerised freight index, which is based on per-box rates on the world’s busiest container routes. Alex Gray of Clarksons admits that the market is tiny at the moment. But he reckons that container derivatives may be worth 5-10% of the physical market by the end of 2011.
克拉克森是世界首屈一指的船商,他于二十世纪九十年代初率先开发了衍生品——干散货(例如铁、煤),并且在今年一月进行了首次集装箱衍生品的交易。随后,另外两家总部位于伦敦的船舶经纪公司,ICAP和FIS,也已开始提供衍生品运输并按照上海出口集装箱运价指数计算。该指数基于世界上最繁忙的集装箱航线的平均货柜率。克拉克森公司的艾利克斯•格雷承认当前市场低迷。但他预计到2011年底,集装箱衍生品将达到现货市场的5%-10%。
The dry-bulk market was also tiny until 2003, when rates took off as China began to import huge volumes of raw materials and rising freight costs became a bigger slice of commodity prices. That prompted shippers and producers to use derivatives to hedge against volatile costs. Forward freight agreements are now worth 40% of the physical market.
干散货市场过去也很低迷,直到2003年,随着中国进口了大量原材料,以及物价随运费支出的上升而上涨,干散货所占的比例开始提高。这促使船商和生产商使用衍生品来规避急剧波动的成本。远期运费协议当下占据了现货市场的40%。
Volatility is also a feature of the container market. Half the container fleet runs like a bus network with regular sailings at set times. With these ships, prices are set under long-term contracts. But the spot market, where vessels are chartered for specific trips or time periods, is very unpredictable, particularly since regulators put a stop two years ago to an arrangement between shipping lines (the top 15 of which control 80% of the market) to manage overcapacity by co-operating on routes and rates.
反复无常也是集装箱市场的一大特点。一半的集装箱货船如同公交车网络一样在设定好的时间定期执行航运。对于这些船只,价格已在签订长期合同中价格之时定好。但在现货市场不可预测,船队会在特定的时期执行特定的航线。特别是为了管理因在航线和价格上合作经营而导致的产能过剩,监管机构两年前叫停了一项航运公司之间的安排(该安排涉及控制了80%航运市场的世界前15家公司)。
On August 5th Chile’s CSAV, which runs the world’s eighth-largest container fleet, became the first shipper to make a container-derivative trade (with Morgan Stanley). A couple of other big shipping lines are said to be ready to test the water.
8月5日,智利的南美邮船公司成为了第一个做成集装箱衍生品交易(与摩根•斯坦利)的公司,该公司运行着世界第八大集装箱船队。据说另外两家大型船舶公司也准备试水。
Customers may also want protection from the ebb and flow of prices. Manufacturers of small high-tech electronics goods, where freight costs account for a tiny fraction of the retail price, may not be that bothered about hedging freight rates. But for makers of bulky lower-value goods such as furniture, toys and machinery, the ability to hedge shipping costs should prove a boon. Betting on container rates, which are a proxy for economic activity, may also appeal to speculators. If so, the market could soon become as liquid as the ocean waves.
消费者也希望从价格的涨落(已修改)中得到保护。小型高科技电子产品的制造商可能不需要为规避运价而烦恼,因为运价只占据其售价的一小部分。但是对于大型低附加值产品制造商,比如家具、玩具和机械制造商,规避运费的能力就变得尤为重要了。运价是一个经济活动的指标,在运价上下赌注对投机者也是非常有吸引力的。如果真是这样的话,这个市场很快就会变得像海浪一样反复无常。