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MORGANSTANLE－ YGREATERCHINA_090610.pdf
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China: Moderation Continues
Against the backdrop of the authorities’ redoubled
efforts to shut energy-inefficient production units,
industrial production growth continued to moderate due
to intensified supply-side adjustment. While fixed-asset
investment growth saw a further slowdown, tailwinds
(e.g. loosening of controls on new projects, aggressive
implementation of the social housing program, easing in
local government financing) have now appeared. We
also expect the Chinese authorities to allow a faster
appreciation of the RMB against the USD given the
rising political pressure and the prospective large trade
surplus in 2H10 compared to 1H10. Given the
heightened uncertainties, we have launched the China
Macro Risk Radar (CMRR) to provide a framework to
systematically assess and monitor risk events of low
probability but potentially high impact.
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