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【出版时间及名称】：Chiba InsurancePost 1H restack: Ping An A-share to C-Buy; CPIC A-share off C-Buy
【作者】：高盛
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：24
【目录或简介】：
Revising estimates post 1H results
For Ping An, we raise estimates for 2010/2011E — EV by 5%/6%, and NBV
by 7%/9% after its strong 44% yoy NBV growth in 1H10. This was driven by
its better-than-peer agent training and productivity, diversified product mix
and mid-to-high end customer base. We raise 2010/2011E NPAT estimates
for PICC by 30%/13% as we believe CIRC’s push for auto claim data sharing
among insurers and the introduction of more flexible TPL pricing will
continue to benefit P&C insurers in 2011. For China Life, we cut 2010/2011E
estimates — EV by 8%/5%, and NBV by 7%/11%, as we believe its agent
productivity will take time to improve.
Changing our top pick to Ping An (A) – Add to Conviction List
We add Ping An (A) (601318.SS, Buy) to the Conviction list in place of CPIC
(A) (601601.SS, Buy; off Conviction list) — based on its above-peer
execution and strong NBV growth of 36%/23%/23% in 2010/10/12E, and
more attractive valuation at 7X 2011E NBM vs. CPIC’s 9X. We raise our 12-
month Appraisal Value-based price targets for Ping An A/H by 9% to
Rmb78/ HK$89.5 on 2.6X 2011E EVPS (from 2.87X 2010E EVPS).
Downgrade CPIC (H) on share overhang; retain Buy on CPIC (A)
We downgrade CPIC (H) to Neutral from Buy given the overhang related to
the unlocking of the Carlyle Group’s 15% stake on Dec. 24 2010. We retain
Buy on CPIC (A), however, as we are positive on CPIC’s fundamentals of
strong life NBV growth of 24%/21% yoy in 2010/2011E, management’s
recent focus on improved performance incentives for branch managers
and product offering, and its above-peer P&C underwriting profitability. We
lower our 2010/2011E NBV 2%/4% and EV 5%/4%, and lower our 12-month
Appraisal Value-based target prices for CPIC A/H by 7% to Rmb31/HK$35.5
on 2.07X 2011E EVPS (from 2.47X 2010E EVPS previously).
PICC (Neutral): positives balanced by rich valuation
PICC has significantly outperformed peers, given its better-than-expected
1H10 combined ratio, which we believe can be maintained in 2011E partly
due to CIRC’s new push for auto claim data sharing among insurers. This
positive is balanced by its high 3.7X/3.0X 2010/2011E P/B valuation, so we
remain Neutral rated. Risks to monitor: upside: better-than-expected A-
share market performance; downside: slowing auto sales could lead to
pricing competition; looser regulatory focus on sector profitability.
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