gs-Global: Clean Energy: wind -20100812

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Table of contents
Overview: Identifying sustainable leadership in a long-term structural growth industry 3
Summary of rating and target price changes – Vestas remains our top pick 11
Market is growing strongly, but has been fuelled by China 14
European drivers – regulatory stability, but financing availability has been key 21
Pricing implications – better economics lead to less downward pressure on ASPs 27
Impact of pricing pressure on manufacturers 28
Which factors appear to matter in which regions? 50
The gearless threat – do new designs from global majors presage an industry shift? 52
Market share assumptions – applying the regional drivers and scorecard elements 53
Increased levels of global competition – why won’t wind mirror solar? 60
Vestas order inflow – 2010 is already a record year 62
Industry order inflow has also improved, though not for all players 63
Orders drive Vestas share price performance as much as estimate changes 64
Valuation: Multiples-based approach that rewards sustainable competitive advantage 66
Nordex (NDXGk.DE): Downgrade from Buy to Neutral on valuation grounds 76
Repower (RPWGN.DE): Upgrade to Buy from Neutral 78
The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of August 10, 2010.

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关键词：clean energy Energy Global ENERG lobal wind Energy Clean