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èCurrent iron ore and coking coal price levelspoint to markets that are in deficit, and running at near full capacity on thesupply side, setting these markets up for a strong 2011.
èSlowdown in global demand growth is expectedas in short term, but not a fall in the level of demand, which means thesemarkets should stay in deficit and prices rise over the next 6-12 months.
èVery little slowdown in Chinese constructionactivity has been witnessed as government is trying to stimulate housing supplyto increase affordability. The 12th 5 year plan should befairly benign; however, spending by the national grid is expected to risesharply, which is bullish for copper.
èDeveloped world demand has rebounded stronglyin 2010 due to restocking, with growth through 1H10 largely ex-construction. Apick up in construction activity ex-China represents a key upside risk tocommodity prices.
èSupply dynamics of individual commodities isbecoming increasingly important
èChina, the flexible friend, leads the supplyresponse in down and upside – RMB appreciation raises marginal costs.
Stocking/de-stocking on price.
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