Credit Suisse - China Basic Materials Monthly - November 2010

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Channel checks on demand. Based on our proprietary demand survey, we
expect near-term order book to soften, mostly driven by seasonality.
Feedback from producers in early November suggests: 1) The MoM trend
for forward order books of finished goods softened, with respondents
expecting a sequential improvement fell to 11% in November versus 80% in
October, and respondents expecting a declining MoM trend expanded to
33% in November versus 20% in October, while the rest saw flat demand;
and 2) materials demand is improving for coal and cement, is flat for steel.
The percentage of producers expecting improving MoM demand is 100% for
coal producers (up from 33% in October), 80% for cement producers (up
from 60% in October), and 50% for steel mills (flat as in October).

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Top picks: our top picks are CR cement and China Coal
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Steel: upside risk on pricing
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Coal: seasonal strength
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Cement: upside risk in 2010E earnings
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Aluminium: supply cut, and dollar driven price hike
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Alumina: higher long-term pricing
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Copper: semi output softened

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