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Real Estate Developers:Initiate 4 high-potential mid-caps; BCD best risk/reward, add to CL房地产业

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Jason ... 撰写日期：2010年12月13日

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    We initiate on four more A-share listed property developers—Buy on BCDas we see it offering the best risk/reward profile, and Neutral on Risesun,Zhongnan and Binjiang. We also add BCD to our Conviction list, as webelieve it has the greatest potential to replicate the success of leadingdevelopers such as Vanke (A), Poly and Gemdale (all rated Buy). Our 12-month NAV-based price targets on our two A-share Conviction list toppicks BCD and Vanke (A) now offer 64%/55% upside potential after recentmarket pullback on concerns of further government tightening.
    BCD: BJ exposure fears overdone; growth potential overlooked。
    BCD is trading at 63% discount to end-2011E NAV, 8.3x 2011E P/E vs. ourA-share coverage average of 53% and 10.7x. We believe the market hasoverly discounted its sector-high exposure to Beijing property market(71%) and overlooked the cost-competitiveness of its Beijing land bank (atabout 20% of current ASP vs. 30-40% for listed peers) which providesflexibility to compete on volume amid ongoing tightening.
    We believe the market has also overlooked its strong execution abilityoutside Beijing that has led to its solid footprints in 12 major tier-two citiesso far. We also believe its state-owned background will offer it betteraccess to bank lending, and thereby support further scale expansion.
    Possible roll-out of a management incentive program next year may alsoimprove operating efficiency, in our view.
    Initiate coverage of Risesun, Zhongnan and Binjiang as Neutral。
    We believe Risesun is one of the best proxies for inland China third-tier cityexposure given its solid execution fast asset turnover business model.
    However, trading at a 45% discount to end-2011E NAV and 11.4x 2011P/E,we view these positives as being largely priced in. We think Zhongnan andBinjiang are fairly valued given their tighter NAV discounts of 45% and 47%(versus BCD’s 63% discount) in light of their slower contract sales growthmomentum in 2011E — due to few new launches (Zhongnan) orconcentrated exposure to overheated cities (i.e. projects for Binjiang).
    Key investment risks。
    Weaker (stronger)-than-expected property sales due to prolonged(curtailed) harsh policy tightening; macro hard landing.

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关键词：real estate Developers developer Develop Estate 高盛 Estate Real 高华 Developers

Overview: Position for 2011 outperformers: BCD, Vanke top picks 2
Scorecard analysis: BCD and Risesun much better positioned 6
Valuation: We see significant potential upside for BCD 11
Sensitivity test: BCD is trading well below even our bear-case NAV 14
Key risks to our investment view 16
BCD (Conviction Buy): Hefty NAV discount, strong growth ahead 17
Risesun (Neutral): Best proxy for lower city exposure, fairly valued 29
Zhongnan (Neutral): Healthy GFA exposure but slow asset turnover 41
Binjiang (Neutral): Hangzhou's premium developer; a tough 2011 51