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Table of Contents:
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Introduction to B2C, C2C .................................................................. 5
A discussion of growth prospects, a look at logistics, and a comparison of models................5
China e-commerce in a nutshell ....................................................... 7
First, a quick review of the Chinese Internet.............................................................................7
Implications for listed players ...................................................................................................7
World’s largest Internet population, but under-penetrated and under-monetized ....................8
E-commerce: rapid growth, structural change..........................................................................9
China e-commerce in context: a comparison with the US experience....................................15
Applying the US experience to China......................................................................................17
China C2C and B2C e-commerce players ...............................................................................18
New e-commerce directions: group-buy.................................................................................20
Focus: logistics as competitive advantage.................................... 22
Key takeaways ........................................................................................................................22
Implications for listed players .................................................................................................22
Logistics: an integral part of the e-commerce value chain......................................................23
Logistics: not a bottleneck to e-commerce.............................................................................26
Logistics: a major determinant of future beneficiaries ............................................................28
Platform and self-build: two approaches to solving the logistics issue...................................30
Content delivery networks – an important element in e-commerce logistics .........................31
Focus: the logistics of going click-and-mortar.............................. 33
Key takeaways ........................................................................................................................33
Implications for listed players .................................................................................................33
China retail market in context and motivation behind selling online........................................34
Learning from the US precedent.............................................................................................35
Applying US learning to the Chinese example ........................................................................40
Click-and-mortar a growing threat to e-tailers in China?..........................................................41
Company Section ............................................................................ 49
Alibaba.com Limited ....................................................................... 50
Baidu................................................................................................. 56
Ctrip .................................................................................................. 68
Tencent............................................................................................. 76
This report changes ratings, price targets, and/or estimates for several companies
under coverage. For a detailed listing of these changes, see page 7, figure 3.
德意志银行：中国电子商务报告.pdf
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