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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国航空行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：46
【目录或简介】：
PRASM outperformance vs. normal seasonality in
October bodes well for the upcoming November
data point. Oct. trends outperformed by >1 std dev,
largely driven by yield outperformance which suggests
yield management in the tighter capacity holiday month
of Nov is likely to skew results to upside. Additionally,
int’l outperformed domestic, an emerging trend that we
identified earlier and expect to continue through 2010
(see Look for Int’l Rev Rebound Next 9/15/09).
Recent data reaffirms our Holiday Demand Trade.
Our deep dive into Oct. ATA industry data confirms that
upside surprises through the holiday period are likely, in
our view. Furthermore, we believe November traffic
reports have the potential to generate stronger RASM
results vs. expectations due to: (1) Comps increasingly
favorable; (2) Company commentary and our own
channel checks point to strong holiday advanced
bookings; (3) Holiday travel surcharges to support
yields; (4) Thanksgiving’s firm placement in November
this year (vs. partially in December last year) is a tailwind
for upcoming traffic results; and (5) Lack of guidance
means investor expectations are not firmly set (see
Introducing the Holiday Demand Trade 11/9/09).
Though near-term bullish, longer-term we remain
In-line. In the near-term, we expect multiples to expand
on the prospect of strong holiday demand trends.
However, longer-term we remain on the sidelines on
concerns of rising oil prices in a recovery scenario and
the risk that a 2010 rebound in demand underwhelms
expectations. The 5 key trends we’re watching as
signals to become longer-term constructive include: (1)
Lower fuel prices mitigate downward EPS revisions and
negative sentiment overhang; (2) Revenue surprises to
upside; (3) Consensus revisions to reasonable levels
given our revenue / fuel outlook; (4) Elimination of the
liquidity risk overhang; (5) Further sell-off in shares
making valuation more compelling (see 3Q09 Review:
Staying on Sidelines for Now 11/2/09).
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