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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国航空货运行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
Initiating coverage of EXPD (Underweight) and
UTIW (Equal-weight). We expect freight demand and
global trade to far outpace consensus. While freight
forwarders will participate in this growth, we believe
asset-based carriers like rails, parcel, and trucks are a
better way to play the global recovery. EPS revisions for
asset-based carriers and EXPD/UTIW have been similar
over the past six months despite the formers’ greater
leverage to recovery. Although valuation multiples at
freight forwarders are closer to mid-cycle norms, until we
see more meaningful EPS revisions for rails, trucks, and
parcel, we feel it’s premature to rotate into later cycle
names like EXPD and UTIW. EXPD and UTIW also
tend to underperform in periods of material gross margin
contraction and falling or stable interest rates, both of
which are likely to persist until late 2010.
Key reasons for relative underperformance: 1) Cons
underestimates the degree of gross margin contraction
in 1H/10 given rising costs of capacity. 2) When gross
profit / shipment is falling, incremental margins on gross
profit tend to be much lower, a fact underappreciated by
the street; 3) EPS revisions are likely to be greater at
rails, parcel, and trucks: We’re mostly inline with cons for
EXPD and UTIW vs. 5-10%+ for rails / parcel.
EXPD: Consensus already reflects much of the
good news (especially in airfreight), and we see a
number of headwinds or areas where estimates may be
optimistic: 1) Contrary to expectations, volumes are
unlikely to materially outperform the industry in 1H/10. 2)
Greater GM expansion than peers in 2009 sets up for
more contraction in 2010. 3) Incremental margins may
disappoint. Cons expects more leverage due to limited
2009 headcount reductions.; 4) Higher current op.
margins imply less potential for margin expansion
UTIW offers more opty for surprise. UTIW’s logistic
business insulates the company from some of the GM
squeeze. Moreover, in the context of a surprising
recovery, UTIW’s lower margins, restructuring efforts,
and greater fixed cost base offer more potential for
margin and EPS surprises.
Table of Contents
Stock Picks 3
Underweight
EXPD: Best-in-class freight forwarder, but less potential for positive EPS revisions near-term
Equal-weight
UTIW: Turnaround efforts, greater fixed cost base offer more potential for upside surprise.
Executive Summary 4
Freight Forwarders: Less Room for Positive EPS Revisions 8
The Outlook for Global Trade: Consensus is Too Conservative 10
Airfreight – No Sign of Post-Holiday Let Down 12
Ocean – Recovery Catching Up to Air 13
Industry Debates
Key Debate Summary 15
Debate 1: What is the demand outlook for freight forwarders? 16
Looking for volume outperformance to resume by the second half of 2010.
Debate 2: How much gross margin contraction is left? 18
The magnitude and duration of gross margin contraction may still be underappreciated
Debate 3: Will incremental margins be higher in this recovery? 22
Incremental margins on gross profit are lower during periods where gross profit per shipment is falling
Company Details
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - Underweight
Risk-Reward View 25
Valuation reasonable, but less room for EPS revisions 26
UTI Worldwide (UTIW) – Equal-weight
Risk-Reward View 30
Historical lackluster performance sets up for greater rebound potential 31
Appendix
Road Map to the Cycle: Still in Recovery Phase 35
Company Models 38
Valuation and Comps 51
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