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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月韩国旅游行业研究报告
【作者】：DAEWOO证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Earnings likely to improve notably from 2010
We believe the travel sector has bottomed and began a turnaround in October.
Moreover, earnings are expected to climb in 4Q09 thanks to a low base of
comparison. In 2010, the number of outbound travelers and earnings are anticipated
to reach a level somewhere between that of 2007 and 2008. The YoY booking ratio
for travel package products at Hana Tour and Modetour Network plummeted by 52%
and 54%, respectively, in October; then fell a more modest 4% and 12% in
November; before expanding by 25% and 7% in December (as of November 13).
􀂄 Global travel stocks have rallied since May; Korean travel stocks expected to join
Unlike Korean travel agencies, major Asian and US travel firms have posted favorable
earnings as share prices have rallied since May, reflecting the global economic
recovery. However, the share prices of major Korean travel agencies have fluctuated
widely due to the H1N1 flu outbreak and F/X rate volatility. After twenty months of
contraction, the number of outbound travelers should start to expand again as the
H1N1 flu vaccine first became available in November and as travel picks up in the
winter. Accordingly, the share prices of Korean travel agencies should start to trend
upward again.
􀂄 Top picks: Hana Tour and Modetour Network
We upgrade our recommendation from Neutral to Overweight on the Korean travel
sector, and recommend Hana Tour (039130 KQ) and Modetour Network (080160 KQ)
as our top picks on expected earnings momentum in 2010. We upgrade our
recommendation on Hana Tour from Hold to Buy with a 12-month target price of
W54,000. We initiate coverage on Modetour Network with a Buy recommendation
and a 12-month target price of W29,000.
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