发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月日本宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
Main message: Japan still has a chance for fiscal
reconstruction to avoid a collapse. The government is
likely to address this issue more seriously from 2010.
The keys to this end are credible commitment to a
mid/long-term primary balance back to zero and
harnessing monetary policy for fiscal objectives.
What’s new: The budgeting system could be revamped
under the new government. Public support for cutting
wasteful spending is high, which argues for more
restrictive fiscal expenditure in areas where the DPJ has
not made spending commitments. This is not fully priced
in by the market at this moment.
Policy implications: For fiscal policy, mid/long-term
targeting of primary balance to avert debt crisis is key.
Signs that the DPJ will offer a midterm fiscal outlook
before July 2010 election are encouraging for securing
credibility. For monetary policy, our global team expects
leading central banks to start hiking in mid-2010.
Deflation is likely to delay the BoJ’s exit, pushing out the
BoJ rate hikes to 2H 2011 at the earliest.
Market and investment implications: Fiscalized
monetary policy and a widening domestic/overseas rate
gap argue for a weaker yen. Easing in Japan will likely
be more prominent as a laggard. Our Japan equity
strategist likes export stocks on forex-hedged basis.
Risks: A rising interest coverage ratio could trigger the
perception that the fiscal position is unsustainable, with
this ratio amounting to 25% based on F3/10 after two
budget supplements, and reaching potentially 50%
around 2018-2035.