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| 文件名: Negative interest rates _James Hamilton.pdf | |
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ECB 终于把名义利率降为负值了！不仅如此，ECB还提供400Billion欧元的贷款。其实ECB早就应该行动，不应该拖到现在。ECB实施QE难度很大，所以负利率是一个不是办法的办法。
这里是Bloomberg上的两篇文章（附关于ECB货币政策重要文献11篇，免费），写的不错，推荐给大家！ [相关阅读] 华尔街日报：Enough With European Austerity, Bring on the Stimulus 日本央行意外扩大QQE规模至80万亿日元 纽约时报：现在最大的风险是通货紧缩 大牛Paul Krugman：日本，对不起！ Less Than Zero: When Interest Rates Go Negative by Jana Randow, June 5, 2014 Imagine a bank that pays negative interest. Depositors are actually charged to keep their money in an account. Crazy as it sounds, the European Central Bank has cut a key interest rate below zero, the first major central bank to venture into negative territory. It’s one way to try to reinvigorate an economy with other options exhausted. It’s an unorthodox choice that the U.S. Federal Reserve and other peers have so far rejected. The Situation ECB officials say more stimulus is needed to prevent a slide into deflation, or a spiral of falling prices that could derail the recovery. The bank cut its deposit rate to minus 0.1 percent from zero and reduced its benchmark interest rate to a record-low 0.15 percent. A negative deposit rate helps the economy by pushing the euro lower. There’s also sluggish demand for loans in the euro zone, where unemployment is stuck near its highest level since the currency bloc was formed in 1999. The bank’s president, Mario Draghi, has been floating the idea of charging lenders to park their excess reserves at the ECB for almost two years. Cutting the deposit rate below zero effectively punishes banks that have extra cash but are reluctant to extend credit to weaker lenders. The ECB has particular reason to use negative interest rates. The Fed and the Bank of Japan have turned to large-scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, that create new money to fuel the recovery. European Union rules make it politically difficult for the ECB to buy large volumes of government bonds, though it is offering more liquidity to banks and will start work on plans to purchase asset-backed securities. The Background With interest rates at all of the world’s major central banks effectively at bottom, officials are looking again at what’s sometimes called the sacred “lower bound” of their main monetary policy tool. Negative deposit rates have been used by a handful of smaller central banks in recent years, including Sweden’s, which conducted a 14-month experiment in 2009-2010. Denmark moved below zero in July 2012 — though the cut was aimed more at protecting its currency than stimulating growth — and ended the policy in April. There is no guarantee that negative rates will be able to revive an entire economy or work in one as large as the euro area. During the height of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis almost two years ago, Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the area’s common currency, signaling the ECB’s willingness to experiment with monetary policy. The Argument In theory, an interest rate below zero should lower all market rates, thus also reducing borrowing costs for companies and households. In practice, though, there’s a risk that the policy might do more harm than good. Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, said at her confirmation hearing Nov. 14 that the closer the deposit rate is to zero, the bigger the risk of disruption to the money markets that help fund banks. (The Fed pays 0.25 percent on excess reserves.)In Denmark, commercial banks didn’t pass on the negative rates to depositors for fear of losing customers.When banks absorb the costs themselves, it squeezes the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates, and might make them even less willing to lend. Europe's QE Quandary: The ECB Seeks Options to Aid Economy by Jana Randow, June 5, 2014 It’s the new conventional wisdom: When all else fails to make economies grow, create new money and buy government bonds. That’s the formula dubbed quantitative easing, or QE. Most economists think it helped keep the U.S. and the other countries that used it — Japan and the U.K. — from tumbling into a catastrophic depression. Shouldn’t Europe try it, too? It’s difficult for the 18-nation euro area to do the same thing, partly because of European Union rules. But now that the European Central Bank has exhausted most other options, it’s moving closer to asset purchases and pressing ahead with other QE-like moves to get more cash into the economy. The Situation With Europe’s fragile recovery lagging the rest of the world and inflation running at less than half the target, the ECB unveiled an unprecedented round of measures on June 5, becoming the first major central bank to take one of its main interest rates below zero.It also opened a 400-billion-euro ($542 billion) liquidity channel designed to rekindle credit flows. Financial institutions will be able to borrow an amount equivalent to 7 percent of their outstanding loans and from March 2015, as much as three times the amount of their net lending to euro-area companies. The ECB will keep providing cheap funding to any bank that needs it, a sort of temporary, on-demand version of QE. Financial institutions have borrowed more than 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) in three-year loans under the backstop. Officials will also intensify work on a plan to buy asset-backed securities. The central bank is hampered by the lack of viable markets for some asset classes, including those that bundle bank loans. In addition, the ECB decided to halt regular money-market operations to neutralize the impact of the government bonds it purchased in 2010-2012 to help debt-strapped countries like Greece, Spain and Italy, turning the program into a kind of retroactive QE. For now though, it doesn’t plan to buy any more government bonds, or to add to its 2009-2012 purchase of 77 billion euros in covered bonds, a type of debt secured by a pool of assets, such as mortgages. The Background The treaties that founded the modern EU prohibit the ECB from financing governments. Germany’s Bundesbank, whose iron grip on prices after World War II helped to soothe German memories of 1920s hyperinflation, has been particularly outspoken against printing money. Their argument: Besides risking inflation, the moves reduce the incentives for governments to stop overspending and make their economies more competitive. For the Germans, it’s a matter of principle, even though deflation, or a fall in prices, now seems to be a bigger threat than inflation. In comments that may mark a shift in stance, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in March that QE would be permissible in certain circumstances.So far, the scale of the ECB’s stimulus measures is small. Government bond purchases never exceeded 9 percent of the bank’s balance sheet, and all the stimulus added up to less than half of total assets in 2012. In the U.S., by contrast, bond purchases of 3.6 trillion swelled the Fed’s balance sheet to a record 4.15 trillion. The Argument Unless deflation becomes a bigger concern in the euro area, Fed-style QE isn’t very likely in Europe, for reasons both practical and political. Companies get most of their funding from bank loans rather than selling bonds, which is more common in the U.S. That makes European financial markets smaller and much less liquid. Government funding costs also vary widely across the bloc. If the ECB were to buy sovereign bonds proportionate to the size of its member countries, more than half would come from nations like Germany and France, where yields are already low. Targeting peripheral countries could undermine efforts to make them rein in spending, and bond yields in countries like Spain and Italy are near record lows. There’s also still a debate about the effectiveness of QE and concern that it fuels asset bubbles as the money flows into stocks and other assets instead of benefiting companies and households. Still, Draghi pledged at the height of the debt crisis in 2012 to do “whatever it takes“ to save the euro from collapse. That promise led to the untested Outright Monetary Transactions program, a government bond-buying plan that requires countries to agree to certain conditions. The program is being reviewed by the EU’s highest court after a German court said it may violate the law. （附件中包括下述重要文献，免费下载地址，回复可见）
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