[外行报告] 美银美林：2012年12月全球基金经理调查报告（免费） [推广有奖]

The liquidity tranquilizers are working
Investor anxiety has been successfully sedated by central bank liquidity policies in
recent months. Investors are now very confident that rates will remain low. Risk
appetites are higher and hopes for economic activity have picked up, especially
for Chinese growth. The potential New Year surprises? Our panel is not
positioned for Japan and Resources to outperform in early 2013, nor for Emerging
Markets or Consumer Discretionary to underperform.
China in a Bull Shop
Optimism on Chinese growth soared to a record high, global growth expectations
rose to a 22-month high and almost 2/3 are looking for steeper yield curves in
2013. Cash levels dipped very slightly to a mid-range 4.1%, but hedge fund net
exposure jumped to its highest level since Aug’06.
Europe over America
For the first time since Nov’10, asset allocators prefer European to US equities.
Surprisingly the Japanese stock market remains a big UW, while Emerging
Markets are far and away the preferred regional OW. Cash/bond/equity
allocations all broadly unchanged on the month.
Energy loses the force
December sees rotation to Financials (smallest UW since Mar’11) and Consumer
Discretionary (highest OW on record – Chart 1), and away from Telcos (lowest
allocation since May’06) and Energy (first UW since Jan’09). The world's favorite
sector is Health Care; least favorite is Utilities. By region: biggest EM Financials
OW in 5 years; biggest EU utilities UW in 9 years; biggest US pharma OW ever.
Contrarian trades
Pair-trade of the month: long Energy, short Discretionary. Other contrarian trades:
long Japan, short EM; long US Utilities, short Pharma; long EU Utilities, short
Insurance; long EM Materials, short Banks/Discretionary.

2012-12-18_美银美林_Global Fund Manager Survey：China in a Bull Shop.pdf (454.2 KB)

2012-12-21 16:37:10 上传