http://blog.goldeneaglecoin.com/what-is-pre-1933-gold/ What is Pre-1933 Gold? Chris B • May 6, 2014 • 0 Comments In the past decade, the term “Pre-1933 Gold” has become commonplace in the bullion industry. Companies have used infomercials, radio ads and email marketing to urge customers to purchase gold bullion that was minted prior to 1933. While there is some merit in owning gold bullion that was minted prior to 1933, many consumers are ill-informed and end up paying exorbitant premiums. Before you decide to purchase any gold bullion, especially Pre-1933, you should at least have the facts in front of you to make a well-informed decision because it’s easy to get sucked in by scare tactics. What Happened In 1933? On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102 which forbid “the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States.” Executive Order 6102 allowed citizens to store up to $100 (face value) in gold coins , or up to roughly 5 troy ounces. Any gold bullion, gold coins , and gold certificates in excess of that amount was required to be delivered to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 per troy ounce. Failure to comply with the Executive Order was punishable by “$10,000 and/or up to five to ten years imprisonment.” It’s worth noting that not one U.S. citizen was ever convicted for not complying with the executive order, even though only around 25% of privately held gold was turned in. Why Was This Order Enacted? The stated reason for enacting Executive Order 6102 was that in the midst of the Great Depression, hard times had caused citizens to hoard their gold, which was stalling economic growth and exacerbating the depression. All of the gold that was turned in to Federal Reserve banks was melted down into 22 karat bars and moved to Fort Knox. This was to ensure the viability of the dollar and keep it entrenched as the internationally convertible gold standard currency. The Exemption Clause In Executive Order 6102 there is a clause that many gold dealers at the time focused in on which exempted “gold coins and gold certificates in an amount not exceedingin the aggregate $100 belonging to any one person; and gold coins having a recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins. ” It’s this clause that protected recognized gold coin collections from government seizure and likely melting. But the “rare and unusual coins” clause also allowed people to skirt the order/law and justify not turning their gold in to the government. Ironically, it’s this clause that also gave rise to the promotion of pre-1933 gold by many T.V. talking heads during 2008’s election cycle. Will My Gold Be Confiscated? While you can’t put anything past the government, the likelihood of a mass gold confiscation is extremely low, and possibly nonexistent now that the United States is no longer on the gold standard (Richard Nixon took the United States off the gold standard in 1971). However, in the event that there is some global crisis that prompts the United States to enact a gold confiscation, there is no guarantee that coins which hold numismatic value will be exempt. Companies and infomercials that are pushing pre-1933 gold are banking on the idea that if there was another gold confiscation that the government would reuse the stipulations from Executive Order 6102. There have been 172 Executive Orders under President Obama so far (since 2009). Layers of Cost When purchasing a pre-1933 gold coin, be aware that there are 3 layers of cost built into the price of a numismatic coin: the metal content, the numismatic premium and the dealer profit. Because these coins are no longer in production and since many were confiscated and possibly melted, their rarity is inflating their numismatic value. This is in contrast to straight bullion coins and bullion bars which only have 2 layers of cost: the metal content and the dealer profit. If you do decide to purchase pre-1933 gold coins, keep in mind that they will always carry a higher premium than modern gold coins.
"The US Is Bankrupt," Blasts Biderman, "We Now Await The Cramdown" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2014 21:32 -0400 B+ Bond Budget Deficit Charles Biderman Cramdown ETC Federal Reserve Federal Tax Gross Domestic Product Medicare Moral Hazard Precious Metals Purchasing Power Real estate Reality Tax Revenue TrimTabs White House Z.1 in Share 8 Submitted by Chris Hamilton via Charles Biderman TrimTabs' blog , US is Bankrupt: $89.5 Trillion in US Liabilities vs. $82 Trillion in Household Net Worth The Gap is Growing. We Now Await the Nature of the Cramdown. There are many ways to look at the United States government debt, obligations, and assets. Liabilities include Treasury debt held by the public or more broadly total Treasury debt outstanding. There’s unfunded liabilities like Medicare and Social Security. And then the assets of all the real estate, all the equities, all the bonds, all the deposits…all at today’s valuations. But let’s cut straight to the bottom line and add it all up… $89.5 trillion in liabilities and $82 trillion in assets . There. It’s not a secret anymore…and although these are all government numbers, for some strange reason the government never adds them all together or explains them…but we will. The $89.5 trillion in liabilities include: $20.69 trillion $12.65 trillion public Treasury debt (interest rate sensitive bonds sold to finance government spending) Fyi – $5.35 trillion of “intra-governmental” Treasury debt are not included as they are considered an asset of the particular programs (SS, etc.) and simultaneously a liability of the Treasury $6.54 trillion civilian and Military Pensions and Benefits payable $1.5 trillion in “other” liabilities http://www.fms.treas.gov/finrep13/note_finstmts/fr_notes_fin_stmts_note13.html . $69 trillion (present value terms what should be saved now to make up the present and future anticipated tax shortfalls vs. present and future payouts). $3.7 trillion SMI (Supplemental Medical Insurance) $39.5 trillion Medicare or HI (Hospital Insurance) Part B / D $25.8 trillion Social Security or OASDI (Old Age Survivors Disability Insurance) Fyi – $5+ trillion of additional unfunded state liabilities not included. Source: 2013 OASDI and Medicare Trustees’ Reports. (pg. 183), http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/661234.p These needs can be satisfied only through increased borrowing, higher taxes, reduced program spending, or some combination. But since 1969 Treasury debt has been sold with the intention of paying only the interest (but never repaying the principal) and also in ’69 LBJ instituted the “Unified Budget” putting all social spending into the general budget reaping the gains in the present year absent calculating for the future liabilities. If you don’t know the story of how unfunded liabilities came to be and want to understand how this took place, please stop and read as USA Ponzi explains nicely… http://usaponzi.com/cooking-the-books.html $81.8 trillion in US Household “net worth” According to the Federal’s Z.1 balance sheet http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1r-5.pdf , the US has a net worth of $81.8 trillion – significantly up from the ’09 low of $55.5 trillion…a $23 trillion increase in five years. Fascinatingly, “household” liabilities are still $500 billion lower now than the peak in ’08 but asset “valuations” are up $22.5 trillion. All while wages have been declining. A cursory glance at the Federal Reserve’s $4 trillion in balance sheet growth in the same time period shows how the lack of growth in “household” liabilities (currently @ $13.7 trillion) has been co-opted by the Fed. I believe it’s clear when incomes no longer supported credit and debt growth in ’08, consumers tapped out and in stepped the Federal Reserve to bridge the slowdown. But what the Fed may or may not have realized is once they stepped in, there was no stepping out. (Charles, would be great if you could export this chart from FRED to be included…or if you have a better idea to show this relationship, would be great???) http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=GVF How We Got Here – Growth of Debt vs. GDP 45 years of ever increasing debt loads, social safety net growth, corporate welfare. 45 years of Rep’s and Dem’s in the White House and Congress bought by special interests and politicians buying citizens votes with laws enacted absent the revenue to pay for them. We have a Treasury and Federal Reserve willing to “innovate” and wordsmith to avoid the national recognition of the true difficulties and implications of our present situation. 45 years of intentionally avoiding an honest accounting of our national obligations, mislabeling, and misdirecting to pretend these obligations can and will be honored. 45 years of cornice like debt and promise accumulation simply awaiting the avalanche of claimant redemptions and debt repayments. First, an historical snapshot for perspective of the last time US Treasury debt was larger than our economy (debt/GDP in excess of 100% in 1946) and subsequent progress of debt vs. GDP…and why anyone suggesting there is a parallel from post WWII to now is simply ill informed. Post-WWII: ’46-’59 (13yrs) Debt grew 1.06x’s ($269 B to $285 B) GDP grew 2.2x’s ($228 B to $525 B) ’60-’75 (15yrs) Debt grew 2x’s ($285 B to $533 B) GDP grew 3.3x’s ($525 to $1.7 T) Income grew 3.3x’s ($403 B to $1.37 T) ’65 Great Society initiated, ’69 unfunded liabilities begin under a “Unified Budget” Post-Vietnam War: ’76 -’04 (28yrs) Debt grew 15x’s ($533 B à $7.4 T) Unfunded liability 15x’s ($3 T to $45 T) GDP grew 7.3x’s ($1.7 T à $12.4 T) Income grew 7.4x’s ($1.37 T to $10.1 T) ’05 -’14 (9yrs) Debt grew 2.4x’s or 240% ($7.4 T à $17.5 T) Unfunded liability 1.5x’s ($45 T to $69 T) GDP grew 1.4x’s or 140% ($12.4 T à $17 T) Income grew 1.4x’s ($10.1 T to $14.2 T) Z1 Household net worth grew 1.25x’s from $65 T to $82 T… http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2014/pdf/pi0614_hist.pdf If the trends continue as they have since ’75, Treasury debt will grow 2x’s to 3x’s faster than GDP and income to service it…and the results would look as follows in 10 years: ’15 – ‘24 Treasury debt will grow est. ($17.5 T à $34 T to $44 T) GDP* will grow est. ($17 T à $22 T to $24 T)…income growth likely similar to GDP. * = I won’t even get into the overstatement of economic activity within the GDP #’s…just noting there is an overstatement of activity. So, while the Treasury debt growth rate skyrocketed from ’05 onward and the GDP growth slumped to its lowest since WWII, the unfunded liabilities grew even faster. Drumroll Please – Total Debt/Obligation growth vs. Debt Let’s go back to our ’75-’14 numbers and recalculate based on total Federal Government debt and liabilities: ’75-’14 debt (total government obligations) grew 33x’s 168x’s ($533 B à $17.5 T $89.5 T*) GDP grew 10x’s ($1.7 T to 17 T) Household net worth grew 15x’s ($5.4 to $82 T) while median household income grew 3x’s (est. $17k to $51k) while Real median household income grew 1.13x’s ($45k to $51k) *$89.5 T is the 2012 fiscal year end budget number, the 2013 fiscal year end # is likely to be approx. $5+ T higher, or debt grew 180x’s in 40 years vs. 10x’s for GDP / income….but seriously, does it really matter if debt grew at 10x’s, 16x’s, or 18x’s the pace of the underlying economy…all are uncollectable in taxes and unpayable except for QE or like programs. Why Can’t We Pay Off the Debt or Even Pay it Down? Take 2013 Federal Government tax revenue and spending as an illustration: $16.8 Trillion US economy (gross domestic product) $2.8 Trillion Federal tax revenue (taxes in) $3.5 Trillion Federal budget (spending out) -$680 Billion budget deficit (bridged by sale of Treasury debt spent now and counted as a portion of GDP) = $550 Billion economic growth?!? PLEASE NOTE – The ’13 GDP “growth” is less than the new debt (although the new debt spent is counted as new GDP) and the interest on the debt will need be serviced indefinitely. Why Cutting Benefits or Raising Taxes Lead to the Same Outcome While many try to dismiss these liabilities assuming we will continue to only service the debt rather than repay principal and interest; assuming we turn down the SS benefits via means testing, delaying benefits, reducing benefits; assuming we will bend the curve regarding Medicaid, Medicare, and Welfare benefits; assuming we will avoid further far flung wars and military obligations and stop feeding the military industrial complex; assuming no future economic slowdowns or recessions or worse; assuming a cheap and plentiful energy source is found to transition away from oil. But all these debts and liabilities are someone else’s future income they are now reliant upon; someone’s future addition to GDP. If these debts or obligations are curtailed or cancelled to reduce the debt or future liability, the future GDP slows in kind and tax revenues lag and budget deficits grow. Of course I do advocate these debts and liabilities cannot be maintained, but austerity (real austerity) is painful and would set the stage for a likely depression where the nation (world) proceeds with a bankruptcy determining what and how much of the promises made can be honored until wants, needs, and means are all brought back in alignment. So What’s it All Mean? Let’s get real, austerity is not going to happen and we aren’t going to balance the budget. We’re never going to pay off our debt or even pay it down. We’re rapidly moving from 4 taxpayers for every social program recipient to 2 per recipient. And ultimately, now we aren’t even really paying the interest on the debt…the Federal Reserve is just printing money (QE1, 2, 3) to buy the bonds and push the interest payments ever lower masking the true cost of these programs. Of course, interest rates (Federal Funds Rates) have edged lower since 1980’s 20% to todays 0% to make the massive increases in debt serviceable. Politicians and central bankers have shown they are going to print money to fulfill the obligations despite the declining purchasing power of the money. It’s not so much science as religion. A belief that infinite growth will be reality through unknown technologies, innovations, and solutions that in four decades have gone unsolved but somehow in the next decade will not only be solved but implemented. Because it is credit that is undertaken with a belief that the obligation will ultimately allow for future repayment of principal, interest, and a profit. But without the growth, the debt cannot be repaid nor liabilities honored. Without the ability to repay the principal, the debts just grow and must have ever lower rates to avoid interest Armageddon. This knowledge creates moral hazard that ever more debt will be rewarded with ever lower rates and thus ever greater system leverage. The politicians and central bankers will continue stepping in to avoid over indebted individuals, corporations, crony capitalists, cities, states, federal government from failing. It is a fait accompli that a hyper-monetization has/is/will take place…and now it is simply a matter of time until the globe either becomes saturated with dollars and/or reject the currency (so much to discuss here on likely demotion or replacement of the Petro-dollar and more…) . Because the earthquake (unpayable debt and obligations) has already taken place, now we are simply waiting for the tsunami. Forget debt repayment or debt reduction…forget means testing or “bending cost curves”…we’re approaching the moment where even at historically low rates we will not be able to pay the interest and maintain government spending…without printing currency as this generation of American’s have never seen. Bad governance and bad policy coupled with disinterested citizens will demand it. Epilogue – So Where Do you put your Money? No one can really know what will have value in this politicized crony capitalistic system as the hyper-monetization ramps up…all I can suggest is to hedge your bets with some physical precious metals, some minimal leveraged real estate, but also stocks and bonds and even some cash…because although there are natural forces in favor of the tangible, finite goods…there are also equally determined forces bound to push bond yields down, real estate and particularly stock prices up. Unfortunately, the more you know, the more you know you don’t know…invest and live accordingly. Average: 4.73913 Your rating:None Average:4.7 (23votes)
On The 'Real' Financial Impact Of ZIRP Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/10/2012 15:06 -0400 Via Chris Turner, Determining the financial impact from Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) (or Zero Lower Bound) to responsible savers poses difficulties. The concept seems simple; gather some background data and chart the results. Well, not so easy. First – one needs to gather data and unfortunately, the data rests in different databases (but that’s OK for geeky data miners that like to make calculations). For charting and calculations, the following data sets provided information: Total Savings Deposits – FRED Average Interest Rates on Savings Deposits – FRED (M2OWN) Inerest Income – IRS tax stats, NIPA tables Effective Federal Funds Rate – FRED (FEDFUNDS) While the omnipotent FOMC suggests they understand all, they clearly misunderstand the impact of arbitrarily lowering the Fed Funds rate . Using data from 1964 to present (when the data sets coincide), we are able to see the historical relationship between total savings and amount of interest income earned on the savings. Note that prior to 2001, as savings increased (blue line), interest income received also increased (red line) . After 2001, a funny thing happened on the way to the bank – yeah, savers saved (responsible) but received less interest. The green line shows the impact of Fed Funds rate on average savings account interest rates. The next chart simply shows 1964 to 1986 and the rate at which savings increased and interest received increased. Both rates move in tandem – as savings increased (except during late 70’s early ‘80s), interest increased . As data goes – the 1982 period where interest received exceeded savings account holdings could be an anomaly in three separate sets of data or just representative of high interest rates paying large interest payments. Scaling into the shaded area from Chart 1 representing 1986 to present, the following chart depicts the effective Fed Funds rate determined by FOMC and the resultant savings and interest during the period. Remarkably, as savings increased when Fed Funds rate remained around 5%, interest income continued to rise . However, post 2001, the interest income received stopped growing at the same rate. With the exception of 2005 to 2008 when rates went back to a “normal” 5% range – the interest income earned has remained stable at 1 trillion. The following chart rescales the previous one to better show the relationship between Fed Funds rate and the impact on savings (removed the total savings). The chart clearly depicts that when the Fed Funds rate declines (to “stimulate” the economy), the net effect is less interest paid by banks to those responsible savers. Let’s give credit to the FED though – from 2005 to 2008 – savers benefited. This last chart summarizes the actual loss to savers . Rather than using the FOMC to direct rates – what if the rates simply floated (market rate)? Using the long run historical mean of Fed Funds rate allows a calculation of where rates “should” be without FOMC intervention. Applying this rate to the actual savings provides a net amount savers could have earned during the last 11 years. While the loss to savers (shaded orange) does not match the same rate rise in savings (green line), the conservative and cumulative effect is a loss of just over 9 trillion in savings during the entire period . This represents the current account loss of nearly 2.8 trillion as of Oct 12. Savers could be garnering nearly three times the current amount in interest income if interest rates represented the long run historical mean. But at least the banking system is saved. Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 9 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 7643 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: FOMC Preview - Rate Extension But No NEW QE Is This Recovery? The Japanese Are Dumping Their Gold Guest Post: Falling Interest Rates Destroy Capital Chart Of The Year: The Fed Has Doubled The SP Admits... The Fed
标签: Chris经管大学堂：名校名师名课
京公网安备 11010802022788号
论坛法律顾问：王进律师
知识产权保护声明
免责及隐私声明
