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| 研究机构：未来资产证券 分析师： Gordon ... 撰写日期：2011年01月28日 | 字体[ 大 中 小 ] |
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With the OPEC cartel refusing to meaningfully increase oil exports and theU.S. Fed reiterating the low interest-rate policy, we expect oil prices toresume their uptrend. Specifically, the Brent crude oil price, now flirtingwith USD100/bbl, should continue to command a large premium over theU.S. WTI benchmark crude. Faster-than-expected renminbi appreciationcould trigger more record Chinese crude imports, providing an additionaltailwind for the oil-price rally. Our favorite stocks to play the oil pricerebound are: CNOOC, COSL, SK Innovation and Cairn India, all of whichtrade at about 40% P/E discount to their U.S. pure upstream peers,leaving plenty of scope for long-term re-rating. We also like Korea’s S-Oilas the region’s best refining play.
Refined Products。
The Singapore complex refining margin increased by USD0.1/bbl lastweek, thanks to higher diesel and kerosene spreads. The naphtha spreadis bottoming out as petrochemical plant operation rates increase. U.S.
petroleum product inventories have decreased by 2.4m bbl, mostly due tothe high demand for heating oil, whose inventory is at the lower-end of itshistorical range.
Petrochemical。
The synthetic fiber chain, such as PET, PTA, MEG, and PX spreads, isquite strong, backed by surging cotton prices. Cotton production fromChina, which accounts for more than 30% of the total supply, is forecast todecrease more than 6% y-y due to chilly and dry weather. S-Oil is thebiggest beneficiary of the resultant higher PX spread.
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