国际劳动力流动下的汇率动态

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国际劳动力流动下的汇率动态

——汇率超调模型的一种扩展

【原文出处】厦门大学学报：哲学社会科学版

【原刊期号】20103

【原刊页号】43～50

【英文标题】Trend of Exchange Rate under International Labor Migration:

    An Expansion of the Exchange Rate Overshooting Model

【作 者】郭其友/焦娜

【作者简介】郭其友，男，福建德化人，厦门大学经济学系教授；厦门大学　经济学系，福建　厦门　361005

焦娜，女，湖南长沙人，厦门大学经济学系博士研究生。厦门大学　经济学系，福建　厦门　361005

【内容提要】劳动力流动是人类社会的必然现象。真实工资的变化是导致国际劳动力流动的内在原因，但因汇率变化产生工资差而发生劳动力跨国流动时反过来会影响汇率变动。将国际劳动力流动因素引入多恩布什经典的汇率超调模型之中，可从商品市场、货币市场和劳动市场三个市场共同均衡的最优条件导出汇率和价格水平的动态关系。通过这一新的研究视角，可以从经典汇率超调理论中得到有启发性的政策含义：强调劳动力的跨国流动应作为宏观经济调控的一个变量，一国在政策设计中应注意各个经济变量之间的协调，同时注意汇率会导致相对的实际工资变化进而影响劳动力的跨国流动。

【摘 要 题】理论探讨

【英文摘要】Labor mobility is inevitable in all societies. The root cause of international labor mobility (ILM) lies in the changes of real wages, but ILM brought about by disparity of wages owing to changes of exchange rate may in turn affect changes of exchange rate. This paper argues that by introducing various factors for ILM into the model of exchange rate overshooting we can define the dynamic relations between exchange rate and price through examining the optimal conditions for the common equilibrium of the markets of merchandise, money, and labor. It is suggested that this new perspective provides researchers with a widow into policy implications owing to the enlightenment from the classical theory of exchange rate overshooting. The implications include the necessity of emphasizing ILM as a variant of macroeconomic control, the special attention to the coordination of a number of economic variants in policy-making at the national level, and the concern over the fact that exchange rate can bring about changes of real wages which in turn have an impact on ILM.

【关 键 词】劳动力市场/国际劳动力流动/汇率超调

    labor market/international labor mobility/exchange rate overshooting

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关键词：劳动力流动 劳动力 Overshooting Implications Coordination 国际 汇率 动态 劳动力

【参考文献】
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