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雷达卡
Credit Suisse: Fixed Income Research
Date: 16 March 2011
Language: English
Format: PDF
Pages: 235
Table of Contents
EM’s steady growth and stabilizing headline inflation not enough to win a popularity contest vs. the G3 5
High oil prices: Winners and losers in EM 23
EM: Mind the output gaps 34
Latin America 37
Argentina: Off to the races 38
Brazil: Lower GDP and high inflation in 2011 43
Chile: What if the peso continues to rally? 48
Colombia: The calm after the storms 52
Mexico: Still enjoying favourable tail winds 56
Panama: Political setbacks not worrisome 61
Peru: Strong finish, solid prospects 65
Venezuela: Oil at $100pb won’t curb issuance 69
Europe, Middle East and Africa 75
Hungary: A push for growth 76
Israel: The art of balanced policy tightening 81
Kazakhstan: Time to tighten the reins 86
Kuwait: In the eye of the MENA political hurricane 91
Poland: Gathering clouds but no storm ahead 96
Russia: Managing the oil windfall 101
Saudi Arabia: Strong growth outlook despite regional turmoil 106
South Africa: Nurturing the cyclical recovery 111
Turkey: The monetary policy experiment continues 116
Ukraine: Maintaining a busy reform agenda 121
Non-Japan Asia 127
China: Higher inflation and more rate hikes 128
Hong Kong: Everything points to higher inflation 133
India: food price decline doesn’t mean much 137
Indonesia: The need to squeeze 142
Korea: Inflation threat calls for more rate hikes 147
Malaysia: The stars are aligned 152
Philippines: Short-lived exuberance? 156
Singapore: How much appreciation is enough? 160
Taiwan: Growth proceeds despite high oil price 164
Thailand: Caught between commodity moves 169
Vietnam: Better late than never 173
Long-term sovereign FX debt ratings 176
Key websites 178
Previous publications 184
Key dates 188
Balance of payments financing needs 193
Government funding needs 207
Quarterly and annual forecasts for developed countries 218
Summary macroeconomic data for developed countries 219
Summary macroeconomic data for EM countries 222
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