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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球新兴市场货币研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
In Latam, we give a regional overview and
discuss the implications of imminent hikes
In Asia, we discuss the outlook for the
carry framework, inflation pressures, and
provide reports on CNY, INR, and PHP
In EMEA, we offer in-depth reports on
Poland, Russia, and Turkey
All roads lead to China
It seems no matter the topic these days, all conversations
eventually lead to China. Be they discussions about equity
earnings, commodity prices, employment, global demand or,
of course, currencies, eventually, China comes up.
China represents not just the engine of regional Asian
growth, but global activity. Chinese policymakers are
tightening credit, cooling the property sector, reducing
investment and continuing the shift towards more sustainable
consumption-led growth. This is a delicate process, and
economic and social stability is their key long-term objective.
How the currency fits with that objective will dictate
Beijing’s FX policy. Foreign pressure has ramped up, but the
more meaningful change has been recent economic data.
With 1Q growth accelerating to 11.9%, accompanied by
double-digit IP, investment and retail sales growth, as well as
a recovery in exports, clearly the stage is set for a move back
to a managed float in the months ahead.
Timing is uncertain, given the decision is political. The
magnitude of RMB strength is likely to be minimal, we
believe, with only gradual easing of the de facto USD peg.
This means the reaction function to other currencies will be
negligible in the short term, in our view. However, medium
term, c3-5% per annum RMB appreciation would likely
increase tolerance for currency strength from other EM
central banks that are currently resisting it, especially where
inflation is rising.
Model portfolio and trade
recommendations 3
Chart of the month 4
Latam at a glance 6
Latam FX: regional update 7
Latam: Implications of imminent rate hikes for the
region’s currencies 10
Asia at a glance 14
Carry framework to persist through 2010 15
China trip notes 20
INR… it’s not 2007 23
FX: More appreciation to come and inflation back in
focus 26
PHP: Appreciation to be more forceful 28
EMEA at a glance 32
Poland: The zloty’s run 33
RUB: still sunny, with some clouds 38
Turkey: All dressed up and ready to go 43
Real effective exchange rates 52
Key global economic and
FX assumptions 58
Currency reference table 60
Emerging markets FX strategy
biographies 61
Disclosure appendix 66
Disclaimer 67
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