作 ---者: 宋涛 郑挺国
题 ---目: 基于面板区制转移模型的我国区域经济周期波动研究
稿件状态: 终审未通过,请自行处理。
这有的做,但不多,原理不清楚,可以开展这方面的讨论
The Propagation of Regional Recessions, coauthored with Michael T. Owyang of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, forthcoming in Review of Economics and Statistics. This paper develops a framework for inferring common Markov-switching components in a panel data set with large cross-section and time-series dimensions. We apply the framework to studying similarities and differences across U.S. states in the timing of business cycles. We hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations, with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics. We find that although oil-producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the United States, for the most part differences across states appear to be a matter of timing, with some states beginning a national recession or recovery before others.
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