高盛高华Automobiles:Cutting 2011 sales on component shortage

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Automobiles:Cutting 2011 sales on component shortage; Dongfeng to Buy; GAC/Weichai A to Neutral交运设备行业

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Yipeng ... 撰写日期：2011年04月06日

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    (1) Attractive valuation: shares trade at the lowestP/E among H-share peers, which we believe isunjustified given first quartile ROE and CROCI; (2)Strong product pipeline this year (Nissan Sunny/March/ Tiida); (3) Encouraging mid to long-termgrowth prospects from local brand Venucia (lowto-mid range vehicle), Peugeot 508 and SUVs.
    (1) Lower than expected market share of Hondaand Toyota; (2) Higher than expected expenses in2H2010; (3) New business (local brands Trumpchi,Changfeng, and Gonow and new JVs with Fiatand Mitsubishi) likely to take longer than expectedto generate profit (i.e., after 2012); (4) Valuationalready fair with 2011E P/E at 10.5X.
    Earthquake related damage to production facilitiesof semiconductors used in autos will affect 2Q/3Qproduction. Accordingly, we cut sales of majorJapanese brands in China by 8% in 2Q/3Q (4% inannual terms) and adjust our estimates and pricetargets across the board. Dongfeng, GAC, FAW Car,and Changan are the most affected.

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关键词：Automobiles Automobile Component Shortage Cutting 高盛 Component 高华 Shortage Cutting