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We believe the recent nation-wide anti-Japan protests stemming from the territorial dispute between China and Japan are affecting Japanese car sales in China.
We estimate that Japanese car brands’ sales in China in 2012E/2013E will be impacted by -7.4%/-3%, respectively, while other
non-Japanese brands are likely to gain volume by 1.5%/0.5%. We also believe that China’s total passenger car market will be affected by 0.5%/0.3% over the 2 years as some potential buyers of Japanese cars may postpone their purchase instead of buying a non-Japanese brand car. However, we expect the negative impact on car market/Japanese brands to end by 2014E.
GS-China Auto-121001.pdf
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