摘要翻译:
我们提出了对大联盟外野手和捕手投掷能力的定量分析。我们使用详细的比赛事件数据来表列外野手和接球手投掷机会中的成功和失败事件。我们把每一个成功或失败都归因于一次跑动贡献,这是每个赛季每个球员的列表。我们使用四个赛季的数据,使用贝叶斯层次模型来估计每个球员的整体投掷能力。该模型允许我们根据每个玩家的机会数量,将单个玩家的估计缩小到总体平均水平。我们从这个模型中使用球员能力的后验分布来识别有显著正投掷贡献和负投掷贡献的球员。
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英文标题:
《Evaluating Throwing Ability in Baseball》
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作者:
Matthew Carruth and Shane T. Jensen
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最新提交年份:
2007
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分类信息:
一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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英文摘要:
We present a quantitative analysis of throwing ability for major league outfielders and catchers. We use detailed game event data to tabulate success and failure events in outfielder and catcher throwing opportunities. We attribute a run contribution to each success or failure which are tabulated for each player in each season. We use four seasons of data to estimate the overall throwing ability of each player using a Bayesian hierarchical model. This model allows us to shrink individual player estimates towards an overall population mean depending on the number of opportunities for each player. We use the posterior distribution of player abilities from this model to identify players with significant positive and negative throwing contributions.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/705.3257