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摘要翻译：
我研究在实验中对溢出效应的识别、估计和推断，在实验中，单元的结果可能依赖于一组内其他单元的治疗分配。我证明了常用的简化形式线性均值（RF-LIM）回归识别了带有一些负权重的外溢效应的加权和，并且处理和控制之间的均值差异识别了以不同标志进入的直接效应和外溢效应的组合。我提出了平均直接效应和溢出效应的非参数估计，克服了这些问题，并且在感兴趣的参数数、总样本量和治疗分配机制之间的精确关系下是一致的和渐近正态的。这些发现用有条件现金转移计划的数据和模拟来说明。实证结果揭示了在政策评估中未能灵活考虑溢出效应的潜在陷阱：均值估计差和RF-LIM系数都接近于零，在统计上不显著，而我提出的非参数估计揭示了巨大的、非线性的和显著的溢出效应。
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英文标题：
《Identification and Estimation of Spillover Effects in Randomized
Experiments》
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作者：
Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form linear-in-means (RF-LIM) regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with some negative weights, and that the difference in means between treated and controls identifies a combination of direct and spillover effects entering with different signs. I propose nonparametric estimators for average direct and spillover effects that overcome these issues and are consistent and asymptotically normal under a precise relationship between the number of parameters of interest, the total sample size and the treatment assignment mechanism. These findings are illustrated using data from a conditional cash transfer program and with simulations. The empirical results reveal the potential pitfalls of failing to flexibly account for spillover effects in policy evaluation: the estimated difference in means and the RF-LIM coefficients are all close to zero and statistically insignificant, whereas the nonparametric estimators I propose reveal large, nonlinear and significant spillover effects.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.02745
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