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摘要翻译：
我们分析了一个有两名选手的连续飞镖比赛，其中一名选手享有技术优势。使用因果机器学习文献中的方法，我们分析了先行者的内在优势，即潜在的更多但绝不会更少的移动。我们的实证结果表明，技术优势导致的先发者获胜的概率高出8.6个百分点。业绩衡量标准低、经验少的参赛者具有最高的内置优势。关于公平原则，即能力相同的参赛者应具有相同的获胜概率，在两个参赛者具有相同的内在优势和随机首发权的情况下，本次比赛是事前公平的。然而，比赛的设计为同样熟练的参赛者带来了不平等的获胜概率，因为与主客场比赛的参赛者的社会压力相关的内在优势不对称。
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英文标题：
《Analysing a built-in advantage in asymmetric darts contests using causal
machine learning》
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作者：
Daniel Goller
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
We analyse a sequential contest with two players in darts where one of the contestants enjoys a technical advantage. Using methods from the causal machine learning literature, we analyse the built-in advantage, which is the first-mover having potentially more but never less moves. Our empirical findings suggest that the first-mover has an 8.6 percentage points higher probability to win the match induced by the technical advantage. Contestants with low performance measures and little experience have the highest built-in advantage. With regard to the fairness principle that contestants with equal abilities should have equal winning probabilities, this contest is ex-ante fair in the case of equal built-in advantages for both competitors and a randomized starting right. Nevertheless, the contest design produces unequal probabilities of winning for equally skilled contestants because of asymmetries in the built-in advantage associated with social pressure for contestants competing at home and away.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.07165
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