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摘要翻译：
基于经验金融时间序列，我们发现“打破沉默”的概率遵循超普适幂律：观察到大的运动的概率与正在进行的低变周期的长度成反比。假定低变周期的长度分布遵循多尺度幂律，这样的标度律以前已经在理论上预言过[R.Kitt,J.Kalda,Physica A353(2005)480]。
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英文标题：
《Probability of Large Movements in Financial Markets》
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作者：
Robert Kitt, Maksim Sakki, Jaan Kalda
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最新提交年份：
2009
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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英文摘要：
Based on empirical financial time-series, we show that the "silence-breaking" probability follows a super-universal power law: the probability of observing a large movement is inversely proportional to the length of the on-going low-variability period. Such a scaling law has been previously predicted theoretically [R. Kitt, J. Kalda, Physica A 353 (2005) 480], assuming that the length-distribution of the low-variability periods follows a multiscaling power law.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0812.4455
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