摘要翻译:
本文通过Scott和Varian(2014)的混合频率增广贝叶斯结构时间序列模型(BSTS)研究了Google Trends形式的互联网搜索数据对实时预测美国实际GDP增长的额外好处。我们表明,在其他宏数据在季度早期可用之前,一个大维度的搜索词集能够改善nowcasts。高收录概率的搜索词与GDP增长呈负相关,我们认为这源于它们发出的信号,可能是由于预期的大低谷而引起的特别关注。我们进一步提出了几个改进:我们允许收缩状态方差为零以避免过拟合状态,扩展SSVS先于Ishwaran等人的更灵活的正态逆伽马先验。(2005)对底层模型的大小保持不可知,并适应Carvalho等人的马蹄形先验。(2010)到BSTS。应用于GDP增长临近预报的仿真研究表明,马蹄形先验BSTS模型比SSVS模型和原始BSTS模型有明显的改进,在密集数据生成过程中预期收益最大。
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英文标题:
《Developments on the Bayesian Structural Time Series Model: Trending
Growth》
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作者:
David Kohns, Arnab Bhattacharjee
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最新提交年份:
2020
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述:Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论,微观计量经济学,宏观计量经济学,通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容,统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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英文摘要:
This paper investigates the added benefit of internet search data in the form of Google Trends for nowcasting real U.S. GDP growth in real time through the lens of the mixed frequency augmented Bayesian Structural Time Series model (BSTS) of Scott and Varian (2014). We show that a large dimensional set of search terms are able to improve nowcasts before other macro data becomes available early on the quarter. Search terms with high inclusion probability have negative correlation with GDP growth, which we reason to stem from them signalling special attention likely due to expected large troughs. We further offer several improvements on the priors: we allow to shrink state variances to zero to avoid overfitting states, extend the SSVS prior to the more flexible normal-inverse-gamma prior of Ishwaran et al. (2005) which stays agnostic about the underlying model size, as well as adapt the horseshoe prior of Carvalho et al. (2010) to the BSTS. The application to nowcasting GDP growth as well as a simulation study show that the horseshoe prior BSTS improves markedly over the SSVS and the original BSTS model, with largest gains to be expected in dense data-generating-processes.
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