新冠肺炎疫情是近几十年来对全球人口健康和经济福利的最大威胁之一。在本文中,我们分析了不同类型的政策措施,旨在抗击病毒的传播和最大限度地减少经济损失。我们的分析建立在多群SEIR模型的基础上,该模型扩展了Acemoglu等人~(2020)提出的多群SIR模型。我们调整了潜在的社会互动模式,并考虑了一系列扩展的政策措施。该模型是为德国校准的。尽管新冠肺炎预防和经济活动之间的权衡是屏蔽政策所固有的,但我们的结果表明,针对不同年龄组的此类政策可以实现效率增益。可以采用物理距离等替代策略来降低目标瞄准的程度以及屏蔽的强度和持续时间。研究结果表明,综合运用多种政策措施可以有效地降低人口死亡率和经济损失。
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英文标题:
《Insights from Optimal Pandemic Shielding in a Multi-Group SEIR Framework》
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作者:
Philipp Bach, Victor Chernozhukov, Martin Spindler
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最新提交年份:
2020
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述:General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类:Physics 物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Economics 经济学
分类描述:q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学,包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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英文摘要:
The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes one of the largest threats in recent decades to the health and economic welfare of populations globally. In this paper, we analyze different types of policy measures designed to fight the spread of the virus and minimize economic losses. Our analysis builds on a multi-group SEIR model, which extends the multi-group SIR model introduced by Acemoglu et al.~(2020). We adjust the underlying social interaction patterns and consider an extended set of policy measures. The model is calibrated for Germany. Despite the trade-off between COVID-19 prevention and economic activity that is inherent to shielding policies, our results show that efficiency gains can be achieved by targeting such policies towards different age groups. Alternative policies such as physical distancing can be employed to reduce the degree of targeting and the intensity and duration of shielding. Our results show that a comprehensive approach that combines multiple policy measures simultaneously can effectively mitigate population mortality and economic harm.
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