本文提出了一种具有异方差干扰的时变参数向量误差修正模型(VECM)。我们结合了一套计量经济学技术,以一种自动的方式进行动态模型规范。我们使用连续的全局-局部收缩先验来推动参数空间向稀疏方向发展。第二步,通过最小化Lasso型损失函数对协整关系、自回归系数和协方差矩阵进行后处理,得到真正稀疏的估计。这种两步方法减轻了过度拟合的担忧,减少了参数估计的不确定性,同时提供了随时间变化的协整关系数量的估计。我们提出的计量经济学框架被应用于欧洲电力价格的建模,并显示了与一组已建立的基准模型相比,预测性能的提高。
---
英文标题:
《Sparse time-varying parameter VECMs with an application to modeling
electricity prices》
---
作者:
Niko Hauzenberger, Michael Pfarrhofer, Luca Rossini
---
最新提交年份:
2020
---
分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述:Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论,微观计量经济学,宏观计量经济学,通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容,统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
--
一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
--
---
英文摘要:
In this paper we propose a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector error correction model (VECM) with heteroscedastic disturbances. We combine a set of econometric techniques for dynamic model specification in an automatic fashion. We employ continuous global-local shrinkage priors for pushing the parameter space towards sparsity. In a second step, we post-process the cointegration relationships, the autoregressive coefficients and the covariance matrix via minimizing Lasso-type loss functions to obtain truly sparse estimates. This two-step approach alleviates overfitting concerns and reduces parameter estimation uncertainty, while providing estimates for the number of cointegrating relationships that varies over time. Our proposed econometric framework is applied to modeling European electricity prices and shows gains in forecast performance against a set of established benchmark models.
---
PDF下载:
-->