《Measures of Causality in Complex Datasets with application to financial
data》
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作者:
Anna Zaremba and Tomaso Aste
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最新提交年份:
2014
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英文摘要:
This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and the Hilbert--Schmidt norm of the cross-covariance operator) and transfer entropy, examining each method and comparing their theoretical properties, with special attention given to the ability to capture nonlinear causality. We also present the theoretical benefits of applying non-symmetrical measures rather than symmetrical measures of dependence. We apply the measures to a range of simulated and real data. The simulated data sets were generated with linear and several types of nonlinear dependence, using bivariate, as well as multivariate settings. An application to real-world financial data highlights the practical difficulties, as well as the potential of the methods. We use two real data sets: (1) U.S. inflation and one-month Libor; (2) S$\\&$P data and exchange rates for the following currencies: AUDJPY, CADJPY, NZDJPY, AUDCHF, CADCHF, NZDCHF. Overall, we reach the conclusion that no single method can be recognised as the best in all circumstances, and each of the methods has its domain of best applicability. We also highlight areas for improvement and future research.
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中文摘要:
本文研究了金融时间序列的因果结构。我们专注于测量因果关系的三种主要方法:线性Granger因果关系、Granger因果关系的核推广(基于岭回归和互协方差算子的Hilbert-Schmidt范数)和转移熵,检查每种方法并比较其理论性质,特别注意捕捉非线性因果关系的能力。我们还介绍了应用非对称度量而非对称依赖度量的理论好处。我们将这些度量应用于一系列模拟和真实数据。模拟数据集是使用双变量和多变量设置,以线性和几种类型的非线性依赖生成的。对真实世界金融数据的应用突出了这些方法的实际困难和潜力。我们使用两个真实数据集:(1)美国通货膨胀和一个月伦敦银行同业拆借利率;(2) 以下货币的S$\\&$P数据和汇率:澳元兑日元、加元兑日元、新西兰元兑日元、澳元兑瑞士法郎、加元兑瑞士法郎、新西兰元兑瑞士法郎。总的来说,我们得出的结论是,在所有情况下,没有一种方法可以被认为是最好的,并且每种方法都有其最佳适用范围。我们还强调了有待改进和未来研究的领域。
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分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Computational Finance 计算金融学
分类描述:Computational methods, including Monte Carlo, PDE, lattice and other numerical methods with applications to financial modeling
计算方法,包括蒙特卡罗,偏微分方程,格子和其他数值方法,并应用于金融建模
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Methodology 方法论
分类描述:Design, Surveys, Model Selection, Multiple Testing, Multivariate Methods, Signal and Image Processing, Time Series, Smoothing, Spatial Statistics, Survival Analysis, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods
设计,调查,模型选择,多重检验,多元方法,信号和图像处理,时间序列,平滑,空间统计,生存分析,非参数和半参数方法
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