协整~求分析~

Date: 06/13/11   Time: 23:56

Sample (adjusted): 1982 2009

Included observations: 28 after adjustments

Trend assumption: No deterministic trend

Series: LNCOO LNGDP

Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 2



Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)



Hypothesized
Trace
0.05

No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
Critical Value
Prob.**


None *
0.499132
19.77318
12.32090
0.0024
At most 1
0.014664
0.413627
4.129906
0.5836


Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level

**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values



Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)



Hypothesized
Max-Eigen
0.05

No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
Critical Value
Prob.**


None *
0.499132
19.35956
11.22480
0.0015
At most 1
0.014664
0.413627
4.129906
0.5836


Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level

**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values



Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):



LNCOO
LNGDP

-1.061949
0.707150

2.354477
-2.527722





Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):



D(LNCOO)
-0.011714
-0.003233

D(LNGDP)
-0.017439
-6.69E-05





1 Cointegrating Equation(s):
Log likelihood
135.6995



Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

LNCOO
LNGDP

1.000000
-0.665898


(0.07763)



Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(LNCOO)
0.012439


(0.00646)

D(LNGDP)
0.018520


(0.00387)

协整分析我一般就用E-G两步法，那个简单。Johansen检验太麻烦，貌似还得对照临界值表~

建议去看看易丹辉的eviews数据分析

选择最符合经济意义的协整方程，E-G协整不能用来检验含多哥协整方程的检验。johenson协整需要大样本条件。