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Credit Suisse: Emerging Markets Quarterly - Q3 2011
Date: 16 June 2011
Language: English
Format: PDF
Pages: 225
Table of Contents
Significantly weakened and still-falling EM IP growth 5
Summary 5
IP growth still falling but may trough soon 6
Though EM IP growth may trough soon, the PMIs point to
further softening in many places in May and June 9
The inflation data remain mostly encouraging 13
Tougher times for the EM currencies 19
Latin America 25
Argentina: It’s all about politics 26
Brazil: We expect 3.8% GDP growth in 2011 31
Chile: No confidence? No problem! 36
Colombia: Enjoying moderate tailwinds 40
Mexico: Softer growth, no big deal 44
Panama: Keeping an eye on the fiscal side 49
Peru: Humala at the helm 53
Venezuela: No clogs in the dollar bond pipeline 57
Europe, Middle East and Africa 63
Czech Republic: Swinging along with the euro area 64
Hungary: Walk the walk now… 69
Nigeria: High expectations of policymakers 74
Poland: Hiking cycle coming to an end? 79
Qatar: Strong growth outlook with little political risk 84
Russia: Political uncertainty stokes capital outflows 89
South Africa: Steady performance 94
Turkey: A concerted effort to delay outright repo rate hikes 99
Ukraine: Not yet ready to live without IMF support 104
United Arab Emirates: Economic recovery gaining momentum 109
Non-Japan Asia 115
China: Persistent inflation and slower growth 116
Hong Kong: Still ample liquidity 121
India: The need for a breather 125
Indonesia: One and done? 130
Korea: A measured pace for normalization 135
Malaysia: Getting worse before getting better 140
Philippines: Growth moderates; inflation yet to peak 144
Singapore: Toward softer, friendlier growth 148
Taiwan: Slower growth pace ahead 152
Thailand: The toll of the polls 157
Vietnam: The ‘calm’ before the storm 161
Long-term sovereign FX debt ratings 164
Key websites 166
Previous publications 172
Key dates 176
Balance of payments financing needs 181
Government funding needs 195
Quarterly and annual forecasts for developed countries 206
Summary macroeconomic data for developed countries 207
Summary macroeconomic data 210
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