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What Makes Emerging Markets Great Investments?
Investors want to buy where the growth is, and Wall Street knows that growth is coming from the emerging markets. Main Street investors are still highly underweight this important sector of the global economy.
Sure developed markets like Germany have enjoyed a GDP boom this year, even beating at least one BRIC, Russia, in the first quarter. But 6% annualized GDP growth could be the top limit for Germany as that economy runs out of steam. Of course, the average GDP growth rate for China, India and other big emerging markets will exceed that.
While GDP can be helpful, there can be a disconnect between real GDP growth and actual equity market performance, where a lackluster stock market can exist in a country whose GDP regularly exceeds 6.5-7%. China is a case in point. Even with GDP growth of 9% in the 12 months ending in the first quarter, the iShares FTSE
Xinhua China (FXI) exchange traded fund has been a money loser all year.
In fact, with GDP growth generally a lagging indicator anyhow, it is often more rewarding to pay attention to policies at the margin that encourage economic growth when trying to predict outperforming global markets, says Vlad Signorelli, Global Research Director at boutique investment research firm Brettonwoods Research LLC in New Jersey. This is where the best emerging market capital markets will handedly outperform their counterparts in developed countries.
“Specifically, we’d be looking for those countries that are looking to maintain or lower rates of taxation on capital alongside a policy of gradual currency appreciation.
Predictability on tax rates is generally positive; meanwhile currency appreciation is a powerful ally in the fight against inflation, which has become a problem common to emerging markets this year,” he says.
“Ranking the BRICs from my favorite to least favorite we’d go with Russia, Brazil, China, India,” he says.
Paul Dietrich, Managing Director at Foxhall Capital in Conn. says short term, investors should stay away from Europe, sell European bank holdings and watch out for anything too closely tied to the US economy.
“I like the big US consumer brands that have a major presence in the emerging markets, like Coca-Cola because as a US company, they will do better because of their footprint in the emerging markets,” he says.
Main Street investors that have yet to get into the big emerging markets can either choose from an array of equity mutual funds, fixed income funds with higher yields than US Treasurys and investment grade status, or the main ETFs like FXI, the MSCI Brazil (EWZ), Market Vectors Russia (RSX) and Wisdom Tree’s India (EPI) fund. Dietrich sees the current lull in emerging market equity as a buying opportunity.
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