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China Renews Pressure on Prices
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ,13.07,2011
The People’s Bank of China said Tuesday that financial institutions issued 633.9 billion yuan of new loans in the local currency in June, or about $98 billion,up 15% from the May figure and above economists’ expectations of 595 billion yuan. A flood of bank lending in recent years has been one factor driving up consumer prices, which rose 6.4% in June, their fastest pace in three years.
Economists generally expect that the central bank is done raising interest rates this year. But they expect the PBOC to continue increasing the share of deposits that banks must set aside, rather than lend, and many economists have said further rate increases can’t be ruled out—especially if inflation defies expectations that it will start declining in July.
The central bank data on Tuesday also showed that China accumulated $152.8 billion of foreign-exchange reserves in the second quarter, bringing it stotal stock to $3.198trillion.The central bank purchases foreign exchange that enters thecountry by printing new yuan, adding to the money supply. Economists with Japaneses ecurities firm Nomura said the forex purchases in the second quarter would compel the central bank to raiser equired reserve levels again to“mopup” the added liquidity.
Though a considerable increase, the April-June figure was down from nearly $200 billion in both the first quarter and the fourth quarter last year. UBS economist Wang Tao said the slow down in foreign reserve accumulation was likely due to less inflows of speculative capital.
She estimated that such inflows fell to around $24 billion,from around $90 billion in the last two quarters. That is likely to be welcome news to China, which often frets about the destabilizing impact of such inflows, and may be seen as a silver lining for Beijing amid the economic slow down.
Last week, People’s Bank of China adviser Li Daokui joked on his personal microblog that China“ought to thank” foreigners for being so bearish on the Chinese economy, as this had reduced fund inflows.
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