大摩全球笔记本电脑市场分析 8月11日发布

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全球笔记本电脑市场分析
Notebook PCs
Correction: The Tide Has Not Turned

We expect most of the PC names will report in-line to
better 2Q results except Acer and Pegatron, which
should still come in below consensus. We see macro
concerns overriding company fundamentals in the
near term. We also include a stress test in this report.
2Q preview - still downside for underperformers,
though closer to the bottom: We expect Quanta,
Lenovo, Compal and Asustek to report in-line or better
results; Wistron’s 2Q should be in line with reduced
consensus; but Acer and Pegatron’s 2Q may still come in
below consensus with bigger losses.
3Q outlook – below seasonal sales growth amid
macro risks and threat from Apple: We expect below
seasonal sales growth (0%-15% QoQ) in 3Q with OPM
flattish to up QoQ, but we see growing macro concerns.
We believe the volume for ultrabooks will be small at ~5%
of total NB mix in 4Q given high retail pricing (~US$1,000),
but will be a stronger demand driver in 2012 as pricing
comes down to the mainstream level (US$599-699).
Stress test: This is based on a 10% YoY global PC sales
decline in 2012 (benchmarking the downturn in 2009) vs.
+0% in our belo- consensus base case. This implies
14%-27% downside to our current EPS forecasts. We
observed order push-out in 2H of July, but not yet
cancellation. With help from ultrabooks and Win 8 launch
in 2012, we view this scenario as less likely to happen.
Investment strategy: Quanta remains our preferred
ODM given exposure to Apple NB and Amazon tablet
PCs and cloud computing as a long-term driver. Lenovo
is our preferred OEM and we expect it will post the
highest growth vs. peers due to gearing to China’s
low-tier cities. Wistron’s diversification is facing hiccups
from RIM and Sony’s weakness, but should still pay off
long term; we stay OW but expect the share price to
consolidate near term. We would take profits on Asustek
amid good 3Q results given its high exposure to Europe.
We stay EW on Compal as it lacks long-term growth
drivers. We will avoid Acer and Pegatron at least until 2Q
as results should again fall short of expectation.

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关键词：笔记本电脑 市场分析 笔记本 cancellation Benchmarking 全球 笔记本电脑 市场

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